Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Mike Conley's Trade Value
Posted by Chris Herrington on Wed, May 20, 2009 at 7:46 PM
On the "Keeping Rubio" post, one commenter questioned my sobriety for suggesting the Grizzlies might be able to deal Mike Conley in a package that nets a lottery pick in this year's draft. I started to respond in the comments but realized it would be comically long for that space, so instead I'll respond in a separate post here:
It remains to be seen whether a team would deal a lottery pick for Conley, but it would be stupid if no-one would. Last season, after the coaching change, when the reins were lifted and Conley was allowed to really play, he closed the season on a three-month run in which he essentially averaged 15 points, 4 boards, 6 assists, and close to 2 steals a game while shooting 44/40/80. This was as a 20-year-old, second-year point guard who'd missed half his rookie year. That's really good production from someone of Conley's experience level and position. This is also someone who was a #4 pick just two years ago and one of the two best players on a team that went to the national title game in a good year for college basketball.
People like to think that "lottery pick" = "star" and assume that Tyreke Evans and DeMar DeRozan and Jordan Hill and Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings, etc. are all going to be big-time pros, but the reality is that some of them will and some of them won't. Even in good drafts, lots of lottery picks turn out to be marginal NBA players or worse. Just this week, Chris Vernon was pointing out on his radio show that of players drafted 6-9 since 2000 exactly ONE has made an All-Star team.
So, if you need a point guard and have a pick, say, in the 6-12 range of what is considered probably the worst draft since 2000, you'd be crazy not to consider exchanging that pick in a deal for Conley, who has proven that he's a quality NBA player and still has plenty of room to get better. Anyone drafted in the mid-to-late lottery in this draft brings considerable risk. Conley is a known quantity.
Now, for those of you out there who don't think Conley is a quality pro, I don't know what to tell you. Either you stopped paying close attention after the calendar flipped to 2009 (which apparently was the case with most of the local media) or you've been brainwashed.
Comments (13)
Showing 1-13 of 13
Yeah. What HE said.
Also, there's something to be said for chemistry. One of the often overlooked causes for our poor performance over the years is that we typically blow up the team every offseason, bringing in anywhere from 4-7 new guys -- including starters. Can't get any continuity that way.
Aside from Conley's improved performance, I think we all saw flashes of how this squad can do when they play together and are familiar with each other's games.
I like Rubio, too. But let's slow down on uprooting guys who seem to be developing team chemistry. If there's one thing we need now, it would be an All-Star caliber veteran (preferably a PF, obviously) who can speed up the gelling process. A productive professional who is a team player, not "me first." Call me nutty, but I think Chris Bosh or Antwan Jamison would fit that bill nicely.
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Reports are showing up on Hoopsworld and other places that Rubio and his agent don't want him ending up in Memphis or OKC. They want him in either Los Angeles or Sacramento. They are saying he will pull out of the draft rather than be drafted by Memphis. What a little jack@ss. Sounds like Steve Francis Jr. At this point, the Griz should absolutely package the 2nd pick in some sort of trade for a top notch PF. F Rubio.
I'm from Philly. We are very familiar with Tyreke Evans and his brothers here. And the word is is that the Grizz are going to draft Reke to play the point. The main reason being attendance. Memphis, as well as many NBA teams, has a problem with attendance. Since Reke is already a star in the city of Memphis they are hoping this will translate in to ticket sales. If he learns how to play on a team where he doesn't have to be the main guy scoring the ball (Mayo), then maybe this can work. We'll see.
Big Bad Bob -- you have bad intel. The Grizzlies like Evans and he would have been under very strong consideration if the team ended up picking 6-8. He may even still be in the mix if the Griz end up trading down. But, no one in the Griz organization seriously thinks Tyreke Evans is going to boost attendance because of his U of Memphis connections. He's really not enormously popular here, certainly not as much as Derrick Rose and even Chris Douglas-Roberts were.
I agree that taking Tyreke that high isn't a good idea. But... now that I think about it, he has some real potential as the combo guard that many believe would fit best next to Mayo. A PG who can get his own shot, and handle the ball when needed... but always playing sidekick to Mayo's decision-making. I could see that working. So, if the Griz trade down a few spots, I would be happy with picking up Tyreke. And unlike some guys, he would be thrilled to play in Memphis.
I'm not ready to trade away Conley going into his third year, or Gay, going into his fourth year, while they're both maturing. I don't want to watch another rookie point guard try to figure out the NBA game all season. I think if we can trade the No. 2 pick for either an established PF or Blake Griffin without giving up Conley, Gay, Mayo and Gasol, I would be very happy. I think those four plus an Antawn Jamison or Griffin would have a shot at the playoffs. Otherwise, we're just serving as a developmental team for the rest of the league.
Before the Grizz do anything stupid like trading down, they need to offer the Clips Gay & Rubio for Griffin. The Grizz can address the SF need in the offseason, but it is too hard to find an all-star PF or potential all-star PF in this league in free agency.
It will be interesting to hear Wallace's take on the Rubio situation after they have met with him this weekend.
I am certainly on board with talking to the Clippers before anything else. That is the best possible end to this whole situation, imho. If that doesn't work out and Rubio decides to be a punk, then I would be very happy to see the Grizz trade down, and pick up a usable bench player and Evans. His shooting is a concern, be has has good size, can get to the rack, handle the ball, and he is willing to play tough D. We have been needing a top notch perimeter defender for a while now. Evans might just be the perfect fit in that sense.
I just dont see the value in trading down in this draft. Would it not be better to try and pick up an extra pick in next years draft. I also don't see value in trading conley to get younger. You trade conley to acquire a player of equal experience, or dajaun blair, who can play tomorrow.
2 scenarios:
rudy/#2 to clips for blake griffin and 2011 #1. (throw in swap of 2nd rounders)
conley/#27 to golden state for anthony randolph, anthony morrow, and 2010 #1.
I agree with Matt H - let's give Rudy + Rubio to the Clippers for Griffin and whatever.
Then make a deal with Houston to get Mayor Shane back (the Rockets are rumored to be looking for late 1st round picks and we have #27 and #36). It would be tough to get him but he'd be the perfect leader for our team.
Our new lineup would be:
Conley
Mayo
Battier
Griffin
Gasol
Me likey.
Steve,
I love that lineup. Let's make that happen. Please. We would then have a team that can be athletic and explosive but also quite defensive and brutal.
lets not get all crazy and blow up this team in the off season trying to cure problems we don't have. For the first time we have almost all upside if we keep mayo, conley, gasol, and gay. A good #2 pick and maybe we can work something with all the $$ we have laying around. The Griz could turn into a long term contender in 3-4 years. but then again solid decision making isn't a strong suit.
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