Wednesday, May 20, 2009
The Four Paths: Trading Up
Posted by Chris Herrington on Wed, May 20, 2009 at 7:50 AM
In order to avoid a single 2500 word tome of a post, I'm going to break up my initial post-lottery analysis into multiple entries that will go up throughout the morning.
With the ocean of possibility that is the second overall pick, there appear to be four main rivers the Grizzlies could take, each with many tributaries heading toward myriad draft-day scenarios.
The first thing the Grizzlies should do is put in a call to the Clippers about snagging that top pick and getting Blake Griffin.
The Clippers are one of the few teams I thought were a candidate to move off the top pick. (Minnesota was another.) The Clippers are on the hook for $33 million over the next two seasons for Zach Randolph and $33 million over the next three seasons for Chris Kaman, so the frontcourt is a little clogged up for Griffin. Also, the Clippers desperately need a player that can change the tone on the court and encourage more team basketball — and the pass-happy Ricky Rubio would fit the bill. Further, if the team were able to move Baron Davis, a Rubio-Eric Gordon backcourt would be one of the best young guard combos in the league.
So, let's entertain, for a moment the possibility that the Clippers might be willing to move the pick. What would it take?
Presumably, if the Clippers are moving down to #2, it's to take Rubio, so they wouldn't be interested in Mike Conley. With Kaman, Randolph, and Marcus Camby ($7.6 million next season) all under contract, Marc Gasol wouldn't make much sense and the Grizzlies wouldn't want to deal him anyway. And O.J. Mayo is clearly not an option.
It would be great if the Grizzlies could use Darrell Arthur or the #27 pick as sweetener to swap picks with the Clippers, but I don't see that being enough to get a deal done. That leaves two possibilities — Rudy Gay and a future, lightly protected pick.
The #2 (Rubio) and a future #1 (say top five protected next season) for the #1 (Griffin) would make some sense, but the more I think about it the more I think the Grizzlies should be open to moving Gay in a bid to go after Griffin.
The deal would likely be #1 and Al Thornton for #2 and Gay. I'm not much of a Thornton fan, but I would do this deal from a Grizzlies perspective because of the long-range implications.
Set Gay aside for a moment and think about adding Griffin to the current roster: You would have a Mayo-Griffin combo as your core with Marc Gasol at center and, for now at least, Mike Conley at point guard. Even if Gay is still on the team, he's probably at best your fourth most important player going forward after Mayo, Griffin, and Gasol (whose toughness and skill at the center position is harder to replace than Gay's wing scoring).
And yet Gay would need to be re-signed before any of those players. Do you want a big deal for Rudy Gay on the books when you're looking at similar or bigger deals for three players you deem more important to your long-range plans? There's an argument to be made — and I guess I'm making it — that if the Grizzlies can add Blake Griffin to a core of Mayo, Gasol, and Conley, then the team would ultimately be better off without Rudy Gay, especially with the cap space to sign or trade for tougher, role-player-type small forward (Trevor Ariza, maybe?).
Comments (16)
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I am an FSU alum and obviously a huge Al Thorton fan. I would be extremely happy if we were able to work a deal to get Griffin and Thorton for Rubio and Gay. For all of the qualities that we dog Rudy about (toughness, desire, etc), I think Al has them. He is capable of having big scoring nights as well. I think it would be a great move for Memphis.
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Chris:
Could this be one of those "'addition by subtraction" moves by the Clips? Namely, with our payroll so low, couldn't we absorb a contract the Clips want to get rid of? Say a Marcus Camby?
I'm all for trading up to get Griffin, but I'm also convinced that we have enough youth on the roster, and if we can do it, we should.
But if not, I'd honestly rather see us draft Rubio for someone else who could bring in some veteran savvy and professionalism . . . while still producing at the four. My gut is thinking Antwan Jamison from the Wizards. With Gilbert's injuries, they might bite . . .
Not to rain on your parade (or 'river'), but:
"Clearly, we're taking Blake Griffin," Clippers General Manager and Coach Mike Dunleavy said in a telephone interview from Barcelona, Spain.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-nba-lo…
standard-issue pre-draft posturing. That's probably what happens, but that quote is not particularly meaningful.
Chris, I really like our potential to trade up for Griffin using Rudy Gay as our trade bait. The most consistent thing out of the Clippers this past year was Dunleavy complaining about Thornton's inconsistency and I think Rudy would be happy to move to LA. Long term this makes tons of sense for both teams, especially considering the glut of big men the Clippers have and their untradeable contracts. Do you think they'd part with Camby/Thornton/#1 for Darko/Rudy/#2?
I love the idea of trading up and getting Griffin. I'm not with you on trading Gay because he's so much fun to watch and he's not afraid to hit the big shot (Spurs game).
Any chance we could trade them Hakim instead?
Hakim is restricted, so you couldn't deal him on draft night.
I would start off with smaller offers:
#2/Arthur for #1
#2/#27 for #1
#2/#27/Lakers pick in 2010 for #1
I'm sure they're willing to deal Camby, but doing so for Darko doesn't really do anything for the Clippers. They would love to pawn off the contracts of Zach Randolph or Baron Davis, but I don't see the Grizzlies doing that to get up to #1.
Ugh, don't even say the name Zach Randolph when talking about potential trades. Terrifying.
I agree on Zach Randolph, but John Hollinger throws out an interesting scenario. With the Clippers wanting to move Randolph to make room for Griffin, they might be desperate enough to move Randolph for Marko Jaric. That's a huge talent mismatch in the Grizzlies favor. I still wouldn't do it because I don't want Zach Randolph on my team at all.
Chris, this is very same scenario I was thinking too. Question is would the Grizz do it if the Clips didn't include Thornton? If the main pieces are the #2 and Gay for the #1 and Thornton then it would be worth doing.
I don't even like Thornton, so I'd just as soon get a future pick or something. To me, it's all about adding Griffin to Mayo/Gasol as a core to build around.
All of this, I should note, is just my take on things. I haven't started to explore what the team itself is thinking yet. A sense of that will emerge in the coming weeks.
just stay the hell away from Thabeet. He will be on the floor for all of 40 games a year. If you are 7-3 you need to be built like Shaq, not Ralph Sampson. He will get broken in the NBA.
Chris,
I think hands down, you're the best Grizzlies analyst out there. However, your recent comments about trading away key pieces to acquire Blake Griffin cause me deep concern as I believe the Grizz brass actually read and pay attention to your blog. I want to make three points on why the Grizz should NOT chase Griffin.
1. Grizz History: As far as I can tell, we've made two, perhaps three, good trades in our franchise history: Abdur-Rahim for Pau Gasol and Wright, arguably Battier for Gay, and by virtue of Love not being so great after all, Love and Miller for Mayo. But, we have a long and horrible history of not getting equal long term return for trades: Steve Francis for Michael Dickerson & filler, Mike Bibby for Jason Williams, and Pau Gasol for cap space and filler (granted we lucked out with Marc).
Furthermore, we've often traded away assets far in excess of what was needed to acquire a target player: Drew Gooden and Giricek for Miller, Posey and Jason Williams for Eddie Jones, and Pau Gasol for Marc Gasol, Mike Miller & the 5th pick for the 3rd pick, and Lowry (a proven backup point guard) for cap space and low level pick in a shallow draft. Now we're discussing offering up a low level starting point guard (a 12 ppg, 7 apg type guy) plus Rudy Gay (a 20 ppg scorer) for someone who may prove no better than Hakim Warrick (see point two).
2. Griffin's upside: I'm no expert, but I watched Griffin a lot this season, and I don't see the tremendous upside. It's a farce to call this the "Griffin sweepstakes" because it implies he's a franchise 10 year cornerstone guy, the type that was produced by the David Robinson, Shaq, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose sweepstakes. He's not. He just happens to be one of the two best players in this year's weak draft. Even with this year's skills, he would not have been a top 5 pick last year. I see Griffin at best as a career 14 ppg/ 8 rpg guy: a la Kenyon Martin. I come this conclusion for several reasons:
First, he's undersized for a modern day NBA caliber PF (6`11 seems to be the modern cutoff for true effectiveness). His handlers claim he's 6`10 and weighs 250, but he looks about 6`9 and 235 (the same claim and actual size of Martin). But look at his college stats you say! In his two college seasons, Griffin averaged 15/9, then 23/11, and went to an Elite 8.
However, monster stats for 6`9 power forwards in college tend to equate to solid contributing, but unremarkable stats in the NBA. Consider four examples: 1) Kenyon Martin was a 19/10 guy his senior year of college. He was drafted 1st overall ,and over his career so far, he has been a 14/7 guy. 2) Stromile was a 16/8 guy as a sophomore leading his team to the Sweet 16. 3) Warrick was even more comparable to Griffin averaging 15/9, 20/9, 21/9 over 3 seasons and adding a Sweet 16 and a national title. 4) Maybe most telling is Kevin Love who as a freshman averaged 17/11 (a better performance than Griffin's first year) in a year that saw him lead his team to the Final 4 and get drafted 5th in a deep draft. These guys were all solid, but not spectacular. I wouldn't trade Gay for any of them. Neither would I pass on Rubio to acquire one of them.
If Griffin is likely to be only an upper average player, why would you consider trading away a bonafide 20 ppg score to get him? I wouldn't trade Gay even by himself, let alone package him with anyone significant. I acknowledge Gay has some on court issues, and perhaps is not so eager to subjugate his game to a more talented Mayo, but such problems don't justify the "addition by subtraction" approach. Gay will average over 18, probably over 20, points for many years to come. You don't trade away such a player unless he's named Zach Randolph.
3. The ACB/Spanish National Team track record. Even the unlucky Grizz haven't floundered with ACB products. We've had three: Gasol, Gasol, and Navarro. All have been significant contributors and EVERYONE of them have averaged double figures in EVERY season they've played with the Griz. The ACB is the second best league in the world, and Rubio was a bonafide star in that league (He was point guard of the year in 2008). Furthermore he's a star on the Spanish national team, a team that came in second only to the "Redeem Team" in the 2008 Olympics. In terms of vetting, I think playing well against Chris Paul and Derron Williams (who were giving everything they had for national pride) is far more indicative of day-in day-out abilities than going up against 6`8 220 college level "centers."
None of this is to say that the Grizzlies don't have glaring needs, but we don't have to give away talented players for less talented players to fill those needs. Nor, do we ever need to respond to a disgruntled player by accommodating spoiled behavior. The organization has already done the whole star doesn't want to play here (Steve Francis) thing. We've also done the whole star unhappy so trade him for nothing thing (Pau). How did that work out?
I've heard a number of trade scenarios that make sense. I can accept trading Conley because he only plays well as THE unchallenged starter and he couldn't be this with Rubio there. And we can certainly trade some (or all) of our undersized PFs who aren't awful enough to bench, but not good enough to get us to the next level (Arthur & Warrick). We don't have to, and should not, give up either Gay or Rubio. Gay is a 6`9 wing with SG speed who can easily average 20 ppg (he can easily be a taller version of Carmelo). You don't trade that kind of player on a longshot hope that Griffin will become a Tim Duncan type number 1 pick as opposed to a Kenyon Martin type number 1 pick. Nor do you give away the ACB point guard of the year, who has Steve Nash potential, to acquire this Kenyon in waiting. My fear is that we'll soon see trade scenarios involving the pick and Gay for Griffin, cap space, and garbage players. Given the Grizzlies' track record, we might essentially end up trading Carmelo Anthony and Steve Nash for Kenyon Martin because we foolishly hoped Kenyon would be the next Duncan.
Even if Gay is unhappy or if Rubio is pouting about not wanting to play in Memphis (which I strongly doubt), you don't give those players away for less than their worth. In fact, you shouldn't even pay lip service to such prima-donna behavior. Gay works for the Grizz. Rubio will work for the Grizz if drafted. It's not the other way around, handlers be damned. Someone in the Grizz organizations needs to actually act like an employer and manage players and their egos (even with an iron fist if necessary) rather than simply trade them for less value. And no, really nice consolation prizes, like Marc Gasol, don't make up for becoming the laughingstock of the league.
I was born and raised in Memphis, but live in DC. I'm a Memphian first and foremost, but I bring an outside perspective. Never again do I want to endure the disgrace of what I experienced last December in the Forum: After Kobe Bryant mockingly thanked Memphis for the "donation" to the Lakers, rather than boo every touch of the Lakers, the arena was filled with Memphians wearing Kobe jerseys and rooting for the Lakers. Unlike most of those disingenuous folks, I have actually been to L.A. (many times), and I guarantee you wouldn't see one jersey of Laker opponent brandied about so openly in the Staples Center, let alone thousands. I was sitting in the lower bowl of the FedEx Forum next to some guy who reminded me of a character from Deliverance. He was wearing a Kobe jersey, dipping snuff, and I doubt he had ever been to L.A. (The John Deere's don't have that kind of range). He kept telling his girlfriend, in the most cartoonish drawl you could imagine: "If we hit this shot, we'll put them away." Of course, he was referring to putting away the Grizzlies, and by "we" I assume he meant himself and the Lakers with whom he obviously shares a strong mutual bond. It was a sad display of the lack of civic pride that made me want to yell at this guy: "Kobe thinks you're a bunch of idiotic bumpkins. He's not one with you. He's not smiling at you; He's smirking at the absurdity that the very people he insults come out in mass, wear his jerseys, and roots for him against their own hometown team." Instead, I just sighed and thought to myself, "This guy is probably in awe of the genius in turning the Pyramid into a Bass Pro Shop. Perhaps he believes that it will lure Kobe to the city." Ah, caring about Memphis and holding outside perspective can be a painful combination sometimes. Let's help ourselves first this time before making any more donations.
Memfan made some good points. (I share the pain of being a Memphian with an outside perspective.) I'd like to see a Chris Herrington response here.
I mostly skimmed over this Trading Up post the first time (believing it most likely that the Clippers would not trade down), but after having read the post more closely, I should say that I, also, am troubled by the suggestion of trading the #2 and Rudy Gay for #1 and Al Thorton. The other suggestions of swapping our picks to move up I am supportive of. But giving up Gay and the #2 for the #1 and Al Thorton, I definitely am not.
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