The happiness over the Grizzlies' lottery good fortune was dealt a couple of body blows on Day 2 of the draft countdown.
First came a report from DraftExpress.com's Jonathan Givony that Ricky Rubio's "camp" is making noises about trying to maneuver the phenom point guard to the West Coast:
Rubio doesn’t want to go to Memphis, and he especially does not want to pay money out of his own pocket with that huge buyout for the honor of doing so. Fegan [Rubio’s agent] wants him in L.A., and if he can’t have him there, he wants him in Sacramento. Definitely not Oklahoma City. “Unlike Griffin or Hasheem Thabeet, who don’t really have any choice where they will play next season if a team decides to play hardball, Rubio has a reasonably attractive alternative option at his disposal—returning to Spain.
“He’ll pull out if he doesn’t like what he’s hearing,” the NBA source tells us. “Or he can stay in and force the Grizzlies to call his bluff—would they really take him knowing that he may never come over? That’s one way to get him to fall to three.”
Then, later in the day, we get this dispiriting nugget from ESPN.com's Chad Ford:
• As I first reported Tuesday night, the Grizzlies are strongly leaning toward selecting Hasheem Thabeet at No. 2.The reason?
Several sources told me that owner Michael Heisley loves Thabeet. He wants the team to be tougher defensively and thinks Thabeet would give it the shot-blocking and size it desperately needs.
I'm told that the rest of the Grizzlies' front office is partial to Rubio, but as we've seen the past few years, Heisley runs the show in Memphis.
On the first question, I don't doubt that Rubio's agent, Dan Fegan, is angling to get him to a bigger media market. He did the same thing — unsuccessfully — with Yi Jianlian two years ago. There have been separate reports out of Spain that Rubio has expressed interest in playing alongside his national team partner Marc Gasol, so it may be that this bit of pre-draft posturing is entirely agent-driven. Which doesn't at all mean that this isn't a serious situation for the Grizzlies. But, it's still early.
On the second point about Hasheem Thabeet: I certainly don't think Ford is making this up and, indeed, it would fit in as a simplistic manifestation of Michael Heisley's stated demand for a better, tougher defensive team. The fact that Heisley has proclaimed himself "the decider" on basketball matters is an obvious source of concern.
Again, there's a lot of time to go until draft day, but let's step back and look at the big picture and make this as clear as a complicated situation can be:
This draft is absolutely crucial for the Grizzlies. Jumping from #6 to #2 is a gift that this franchise absolutely cannot afford to waste. And there should be no question about whether Rubio or Thabeet should be higher on the team's — any team's — draft board.
Rubio is a hoops prodigy that has been considered a future NBA star since he was 14. He plays with a flair that can make an enormous impact both on fan and media interest. He's not as safe a pick as Blake Griffin or as good a fit on the current Grizzlies' roster, but I think he's got just as much upside and has a greater chance to be a franchise-altering player. Remember what a sensation Jason Williams was as a rookie for Sacramento? Rubio can have the same impact, except he's a much better all-around talent.
Thabeet, by contrast, is much more limited in ability and appeal. Even if he tops out his ability and becomes another Dikembe Mutombo, that doesn't compare to what Rubio would be at his best. And it's far more likely that Thabeet is more of a Theo Ratliff-level center — a quality starter, but not a star. Another consideration is the sketchy track record for players 7'3" and taller.
For these reasons there are only three acceptable outcomes for the Grizzlies on draft night:
1. Get Blake Griffin
2. Get Ricky Rubio
3. Deal the #2 pick for a significant trade package
Anything else is failure.
Drafting Thabeet or anyone else not named "Griffin" or "Rubio" with the second pick cannot happen. Trading down with only a late first-rounder or some other marginal asset coming back cannot happen.
The Draft Express piece ends with the conclusion that a deal between the Clippers and Grizzlies that would land Griffin in Memphis and Rubio in Los Angeles would make sense for all parties involved. I agree. But no matter what happens with the Clippers, Rubio is the clear-cut #2 asset in this draft (at least) and the Grizzlies control that asset. Either Rubio plays in Memphis or Memphis controls where he goes.
The Grizzlies simply cannot afford to mess this up. Michael Heisley cannot afford to mess this up — to make a terrible talent-evaluation decision or get bullied into abdicating the team's lottery leverage. I fear Chad Ford may be accurate in his reporting on Heisley preferring Thabeet. But I suspect Ford is also accurate in reporting that the team's entire basketball staff knows better. If so, hopefully that consensus can set Heisley straight in time.
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Thabeet will be a big ass bust in the NBA. You don't need an average injury prone big guy just because he is 8ft tall. Call Rubio's bluff and draft his ass. Or you can just be the laughing stock of the NBA like the Nets passing on Kobe because of the europe threats. Who gets the team when Heisley has his inevitable coronary? We will have the rights to Rubio and what is he going to do? Stay in AAA basketball? What a dream.
I agree 100% with the general theme of the post, but don't know about some of the details.
You mention the sketchy history of players taller than 7'3'', but you could probably say the same thing about European guards. Has there ever been a European guard who wasn't playing with Tim Duncan that made an All-Star team? (Peja averages less than 2 assists for his career; he is a small forward.) This is kind of stupid because it is weighted toward older/retired players, but I couldn't find any Europeans in the top 100 of career assists. And few of those 7'3'' players came with the track level of success against decent competition that Thabeet has had. Say what you want about him, but he was the player of the year in the best college basketball conference in the country, which is more than guys like Manute Bol and Priest Lauderdale had done.
In the long run, I also don't really think it matters that much that Rubio is a flashy player. A championship contending team will draw better than an average exciting team. If Heisley really thinks that Thabeet provides a much better chance to win (which would probably be insane), then he should pick him.
Finally, except for maybe it showing that he can handle pressure or something, who cares how good and hyped Rubio was when he was 14? I am sure plenty of people thought that Josh McRoberts and Sebastian Telfair were going to be NBA stars when they were 14.
@ 38103
Dražen Petrović never made an All-star game but he is in the Hall of Fame. But all of the Spanish NBA guys have been fairly successful some more than others obviously.
But saying that you shouldnt taken certain players b/c other Euro guys have been busts is just silly. How many American guys have been busts? If you are going to use that same logic then Derrick Rose shouldnt have been taken #1 b/c all the previous guards under Cal at Memphis have been busts in the NBA.
Also Thabeet is not an option at 2. Its not even a topic of discussion, and if Heisley takes him then he will see how much Memphians care about the Grizzlies when nobody shows up to a single game all season.
Sorry I meant to direct that last comment @ EJ. I looked at the names wrong.
Thabeet = End of Grizzlies
Timmy D,
I didn't say anything in that post that criticized Rubio, and if you read my post, it is obvious that I prefer Rubio to Thabeet. I agree with you that it is not fair to criticize Rubio because other European players have been busts. I just also thought that it was unfair to criticize Thabeet because other really tall players have been busts.
I suggested Thabeet would be a Theo Ratilff-level player, so I wasn't predicting he'd be a bust. I brought up the track record of 7'3"-plus players because there seems to be something physiological about players that tall and being injury prone when trying to play NBA-level basketball.
I just don't get the appeal of Thabeet. He was taken to the woodshed by a smaller (much more skilled) Dejuan Blair multiple times and he has never shown any glimmer of offensive hope. The scouts that are in love with Thabeet really just perplex me. I can't tell if maybe I don't know anything about basketball or if Thabeet is the 3rd option because this draft is just that shallow in regards to big men. Too bad Thabeet is a big boy.
First off, I am absolutely terrified of Heisley making ANY decisions unrelated to sheet metal, but I doubt that Wallace and Hollins will let Thabeet get drafted after they see Rubio is his element at the ACB playoffs. The other report, that Rubio wants to play in LA, is more encouraging than anything else in my opinion. IF he really wants to play there and his agent is persuasive enough to make a deal happen, I think we have a real shot at Griffin. With Baron Davis likely out of there, Clips will need a PG. We could throw Gay into the mix too, which would eliminate having to pay him more money than a scoring forward with no handles, defense, or court vision is worth. Here's hoping that Rubio's sleazy agent can work some magic.
This is where that cap space and flexibility come in handy. We can take on salary that the Clippers don't want, give them some talent and Rubio.
And you know Gasol's got to be on the phone with Ricky himself. We'll see what happens. Nice to have Memphis on the national radar at least . . .
I think The Griz should make it very clear that they intend to take Rubio with the #2 pick. Call Fegan's bluff before the draft even happens. It gives Rubio time to decide exactly what he wants to do, and it takes the pressure off the Grizzlies. That said, I would love to make a deal to grab Griffin. Offer Rudy and Rubio. It seems like a no-brainer for the Clippers. The only problem is, Dunleavy actually may not have a brain. So, yeah...
Oh, and about Thabeet. Let me point out the relevant facts here. Thabeet is 7'3" and he couldn't average better than 13 ppg against opponents who on-average were 6'9" and shorter... at the college level. Yeah, I'm sure he will be an amazing pro.
If you watched him play at all last year, you know he should be avoided like the plague. You know why he has a reputation as a shot blocker? Because he is terrible to mediocre in every other area of his game. And he was only able to block a decent number of shots against much smaller guys in college. If the Griz are going to work out Thabeet before the draft, they should have Marc stop by and play a little one on one with him. I guarantee after 15 minutes of watching Thabeet getting schooled by Gasol, they will no longer have him on their radar.
That is an interesting point about really tall players being injury prone and I have heard it before, but am not entirely convinced by it. Of the top of my head, the guys that are the most physiologically similar to Thabeet are Mark Eaton, Mutombo, Yao, Ilgauskas and Rik Smits. Manute Bol, Shawn Bradley, and Ralph Sampson were so skinny (at least early in their careers) that I don't think they are good comparisons, and I think Muresan had a diagnosable medical condition that caused his height (maybe all of these guys do). Mark Eaton and Mutombo played until they were 35 without major injuries, and Smits played for 7 years before he started getting hurt. Yao and Ilgauskas have been injured alot, but I think (I am sure about Yao, not sure about Ilgauskas) they already had foot problems before they were drafted. I am not aware of Thabeet having any major injuries yet, and, hopefully (for his sake, not because I think he should be considered at #2), he has gotten past the point where he would start having foot injuries.
The Grizz fan base needs a jolt, a boost - someone to rally around. Look what Jason Williams did upon his arrival. Fans LOVED him - and from what I've seen of Rubio, he brings every bit as much flash with even more substance - at 18 years old! Memphis needs "star" level players. Criticize Jerry West all you want, but there was one thing he was absolutely right about - this team needs a franchise player. OJ is a star and Rudy has star potential. Rubio could be yet another possibility for this to finally happen for the Grizz.
Good luck Chris Wallace - go get us Ricky!
Ditto what TennDrew said, why get another center right now unless it's a big upgrade from Marc? We need a stud PF; if we can't get that, take Rubio. Thabeet is a distant 3rd option here.
Chris H., (1) can we really get David Lee, can a contract and sign/trade get worked out; (2) will they spend $$ to get him; (3) is he the hoss we need at the four?
I'm not Chris H. obviously but I just don't see David Lee as the PF to push Memphis into the green. Don't get me wrong I think he is really good but I just don't like him as a fit for Memphis.
Rubio just needs to change his maxi-pad, start acting right, and get ready for some Memphis BBQ
Can we please stop talking about trading #2 and Rudy Gay to the Clippers for the rights to Blake Griffin. That would go down as a worse steal than the Pau trade. Rudy is a high level NBA talent, Griffin is an unproven commodity who wasn't even as good as Beasley last year. Would we trade Rudy and the #2 for Beasley right now? Of course not. I'm not opposed to moving Rudy, but only if we are getting value for him. In this case, There is no way of knowing if trading Rubio for Griffin straight up would even be a good deal, so I certainly wouldn't consider adding Gay to that deal.
How about Rubio and Gay for someone proven. Say John Stockton or Karl Malone. I hear they are available.
What about drafting Rubio and having him back Conley up, then spend some of our tremendous amount of cap space for a power forward?
We can always trade Rubio or Conley later in the year.
I think you are greatly overrating Rudy on the team commodoros. He is good but he isn't the All Star caliber player people thought he was last year. He really showed (in my opinion) his ceiling in this current season and truely showed that he is focused on one thing and one thing alone and that is scoring.
Two things:
1) Today on the Vernon show Vaccaro stated that 20 GMs stated that the Grizz now have a very valuable asset to trade; Conley.
2) There was a new article on SI.com( http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ… ) where the writer stated that his understanding of Fegan's comments were that he did not want Rubio in Memphis IF the Grizzlies were committed to Conley.
I think we will end up seeing the Grizz trade Conley on draft night and end up with either Jordan Hill or DeJuan Blair.
My hope would be the Grizz see just how much the Blazers want Conley.
Conley, Gay, Grizz 2010 1st rd pick
for
Aldridge, Outlaw
GrizzleGM, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. Just not sure the Blazers would go for it. And I think you are right. The best move is trade Conley and draft Rubio. A back-court of Rubio and Mayo would be deadly. If you can trade Rudy for a great PF, then do it. But, I would really be interested to see how having Rubio on the team could open up Rudy's game. My hope right now is the Griz draft Rubio, and trade Conley for a young aggressive PF.
TennesseeDrew, I understand the appeal of having both Conley and Rubio on the team. But, I don't think that would be a good idea. Currently, Conley's perceived value is pretty high. If you have he and Rubio battle it out for the starting PG spot, no matter who wins the other guy's value goes into the toilet. So, instead of being able to trade one of them for a top-notch PF, you end up giving one of them away like Kyle last year. If they decide to go for Rubio, they have to go "all in" on the gamble and trade Conley for the highest value they can get.
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