Monday, June 22, 2009
Draft Notes: Quick Thoughts, Twitter, Post Schedule
Posted by Chris Herrington on Mon, Jun 22, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Other work will keep me from posting anything in-depth here until tonight at the earliest, but a few quick hits:
My best feel for the Grizzlies' current draft plans coming out of yesterday's workout session is that there are two primary options at this point: Drafting and keeping Hasheem Thabeet and drafting and trading Ricky Rubio. Any other scenario (such as taking James Harden, Tyreke Evans, or Stephen Curry at #2) is a longshot.
A team contingent (Chris Wallace, Lionel Hollins, Tony Barone Sr., and Johnny Davis) flew to Los Angeles Saturday to meet with Thabeet, which I certainly think fans should take as a strong indicator of how seriously Thabeet is being considered at #2.
On the other hand, trading the pick still seems to be a strong option, and it's been indicated to me that the rumored Minnesota deal involving Kevin Love is legit and still in play. In addition to that, there are likely several other trade options on the table with, presumably, more to come as draft day approaches.
What I don't sense is much of a chance of the team drafting and keeping Rubio, who doesn't appear to have a strong champion in the team's crowded and volatile war room.
Workouts Today: I'm typing this from the team's practice court where a group of prospect for picks #27 and #36 are working out — Danny Green, DeMare Carroll, A.J. Abrams, Marcus Thornton, and Lester Hudson. I'll have a report on today's and yesterday's workout up whenever I'm able to do it.
Radio/Twitter: I'll be on The Chris Vernon Show sometime this afternoon to talk about the current workout and other Grizzlies issues. Not sure yet what time I'll be on, but probably during the 4 or 5 o'clock hours.
Additionally, I've finally been brow-beaten into starting a Twitter account. You can follow me at Twitter.com/ChrisHerrington. I can't promise I'll post there often, but will give a quick react to the workouts and announce by Vernon show time when I know it.
As for the coming days, in addition to tracking Grizzlies-related rumors and commentary around the web, I plan the following posts as we head toward draft day:
A final "Grizzlies Draft Board" based on what I think the team is likely to do at #2.
My own proposed game plan for what I think the team should do.
A more in-depth breakdown of candidates at #27 and #36, following the completion of workouts Wednesday.
More — much more — later.
Comments (28)
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Chris, what (in your mind) is the reason for the Grizz not presenting a strong front in regards to Rubio. IMO their disinterest in him has, to an extent, greatly reduced his value.
Second question - if the #2 pick were kept, who do you think would more greatly increase season ticket sales - Thabeet or Rubio?
Chris,
I am sure its hard to keep all of this stuff updated with your other responsibilities. But I really appreciate it. You're one if not the best source for Grizz info.
Thanks.
Chris, I really appreciate your work on the draft, and throughout the year.
So it appears that Hasheet Thabeet is #2 on the grizz board, and they will only trade rubio if they can get something back that they think is better than Thabeet's value.
I have serious concerns about Thabeet playing with Gasol, or ever developing the ability to dribble, pass or shoot. I mean, should we worry about Gasol's future at this point? Whatever defensive upgrade we gain with Thabeet will be lost when Gasol is asked to run around chasing power forwards off the dribble.
I agree with you Matt H and i follow thinking the best option is going for Kevin Love and Tyreke Evans. Conley-Mayo-Gay-Love-Gasol and Evans-Ross-Some Free Agent-Arthur-Milicic are two good teams with the rotations that Collins decide. Taht's a good way to follow in.
CH,
Would Gasol and Tha-Beat split minutes at the 5, then play for 10 minutes a game together? (= 58 possible minutes, nearly 30 each) Or do they move Gasol as part of a deal for a power forward? I can't think of many NBA teams that wouldn't want Gasol. Perhaps he's even more of a tradeable asset than Conley, especially with the number of available prospects at PG 2009 and 2010, and the general lack of capable big men.
And if Marc brings something back, it adds to the (ongoing) justification of the Pau trade.
Chris,
Wallace doesn't pillow talk with the media like a lot of other GM's. I know this causes misinformation in the media and frustrates fans. We may percieve that the value for the #2 is lowering, but are there feelings amongst the GM's that the #2 is becoming less valuable? There is so much posturing going on, it is difficult to know who or what to believe.
@ Jason E - Thabeet and Marc on the floor at the same time would be a fiasco. Neither have the skillset to play the 4. That means not enough minutes for both to get starters minutes. Marc would likely be moved in fairly short order.
GGF, that's true, but I also thought OJ would play some at the 1. With this coaching staff, nay, this franchise, I rule out nothing. Are you telling me that every lineup you saw last year made as much or more sense than Conley-Mayo-Gay-Thabeet- Gasol? I didn't think so. I'm not saying it should be done--I'm saying there are people high up in the org chart of your Memphis Grizzlies who might actually give it a go.
Good God, Please! Do not pick Thabeet! Do not trade Marc! Take Rubio! Trade Conley to Portland! Do it! It's not that difficult! Even if you keep them both, they will be even more valued later. What? You think Rubio will sit at the end of the bench and pout! Hah! The kid is fire! He LUSTS for steals! Come on Heisley! Get it together or give up the reigns!
Oh yeah, thanx Chris! You da best!
Point taken Jason. Thank you for reminding me that we're not dealing with the run of the mill, rational front office :(
I have to say, if you look back through the Grizz draft history, it is a myth that they don't effectively evaluate talent in the draft, or young players in general.
2001 - Drafted Gasol over Eddy Curry and Jason Richardson. Drafted Shane battier over eddie Griffin, sagana diop, and rodney white. Joe Johnson was the next pick, so arguably they could've picked him.
2002 - Drew Gooden over nik tskitishvili, dajaun wagner. Arguably they shouldve picked nene or amare, but neither player was viewed as a contender for that pick at the time. They promptly traded gooden for an even more productive mike miller, who went on to have quite a few productive but not great years for us.
2003 - Marcus Banks. The one definite miss. We traded away better players too.
2004 - No first round pick, traded away for Bonzi Wells.
2005 - Hak Warrick over Julius Hodge, Nate Robinson, Jarrett Jack. Maybe we would be better off with Nate or JJ, but not appreciably better.
2006 - Traded up to get Rudy Gay over Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene, JJ reddick, Hilton Armstrong, Thabo Sefalosha. Clear win.
Also picked Lowry over Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sergio Rodriguez. As with Hak, these players are even closer in terms of production. Another good pick.
2007 - Picked Mike Conley over Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Yi Jianlian and Jo Noah at #10. Jury is still out, despite all the mike conley haters. Green and Noah are effective, but not stellar pros.
2008 - Drafted Love, traded him for OJ Mayo. Both a good pick, and a good trade.
So other than the marcus Banks selection, there are no busts, and only a few selections that can be seen as questionable, given many years of hindsight. There are many teams that would envy that drafting track record.
You're being a little bit selective there Matt H:
2003 was Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones via the draft-day trade -- not good selections, though Dahntay had a good year in Denver.
And you're leaving out the infamous Robert Archibald pick early in the second of the Gooden draft.
In general, though, you're right -- it's not as bad a draft record as some assume, and they haven't blown any first-round picks since the Bell/Jones since 03.
Chris - after the proposed suggestion of Gasol for Love (in addition to drafting Thabeet), I'd propose you be de twittered! HORRIBLE suggestion IMO...
@GrizzledGrizzFan,
You've gotta be kidding. Herrington's suggestion of drafting Thabeet and swapping Gasol for Love is so good it just can't be true. It would be brilliant.
Whether the Timberwolves are really dangling Love is the question. I've read on other websites that Kahn is keeping Love out of trade discussions. But if we could pull that off, it would be an unbelievable coup. Nice suggestion, Herrington. Love it.
I was just following the logic of a Thabeet pick and the Wolves looking for a center. I'm not calling for that scenario by any means, but only because I don't want to draft Thabeet. I like the Love Train.
I'm all good with getting Kevin Love in Beale St. Blue - just not at the cost of Gasol 2.0
Because it was a trade, I didn't see it at first, so that was my bad. I was only looking at 1st rounders, not 2nds. The last 5 picks in the first round, and the second round is basically a crap shoot.
Also, I'm at work... I dont have all day to be twittering to my followers like some people :)
Also, swapping gasol for love doesnt make us any better. I still think that what happens on draft day will surprise us all. A deal will materialize. There is too many teams wanting rubio to not make some offer that will knock Wallace's socks off.
I mean, I hope someone will knock Wallace's socks off.
Agreed Matt: My gut says something explosive is going to happen on draft day or afterwards. It will probably involve drafting and traiding Rubio.
Anybody who wants to trade Marc Gasol is NUTS. I don't care what Thabeet does. See the thing is this: Marc actually HAS an offensive game. Why would we trade him?
Great work Chris . . .
Trading Gasol 2.0 for the Love Train just seems to me like a poor attempt to make a Thabeet pick seem less stupid after the fact.
Wait, what?
The best trade that we could make draft night would be Conley, #2 for Love, #6, if Harden, Evans, or Curry is available at #6.
Strongly disagree with you, GrizzleGM. I think Conley is turning into a heckuva player - and fast. I, for one, am a big fan of Conley's. He's made a ton of improvement in a very short time and is still really, really young. The biggest knock on the kid was his jumpshot and am I crazy, or did he not become a really nice shooter by the end of the season?
I'd love to see us figure out a way to use this pick to acquire a great PF - without giving up any of our core (Conley, Mayo, Gay, Gasol).
Why would the wolves want Conley and #2? There can't be two teams stupid enough to draft thabeet 2nd.
@Jason Jones
Do you like Conley or Mayo better? Mayo will walk at the end of his contract if Conley is the PG here.
We got a taste of how good this team can be the two times this year that Mayo had the bulk of the minutes at PG. Trade Conley now while is value is high. If you wait, it is more likely that his value will decrease.
In all seriousness the grasping at Conley is not so wise anymore. OJ is a much better PG even in his limited time at the point. He is natural and he is a really good defender. Facilitate the offense through him, not through Conley. Grizzled is correct, if Wallace gets Love I will hoist him on my shoulders and march him around Beale St.
That's a false choice, leglockfan . . .
If anything, look for Conley and Mayo to play nicely off of each other this coming season. Somehow, I think Hollins is smart enough to figure out how to use them both, to give different looks at the point.
What WILL make this work is the fact that Conley is turning into a pretty good spot up shooter, especially from the arc. Those two can be a DEADLY tandem.
Patience people . . .
Conley and Mayo may be effective on offense, I still dont see why they wouldnt be, if you let mayo have the ball in his hands enough. What won't work is on the defensive end, where you force mayo to guard players 3-6" taller than him every night. This wouldn't be a problem except....
Rudy can't guard anyone either, so until Rudy gets better defensively, or OJ/Conley grows 3", practically every team will have an advantage on our perimeter players.
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