The NBA season tips off tonight. My divisional preview series got sidetracked by other work, but I hope to finish those up — in somewhat abbreviated fashion — by the the end of the week. I also have a few other Griz-specific season preview items I hope to post here before the team's opener tomorrow night, one of which — on O.J. Mayo — should be up this afternoon.
In the meantime, let me get on the record here with my predictions for this NBA season:
Western Conference:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Utah Jazz
5. Portland Trailblazers
6. Denver Nuggets
7. Phoenix Suns
8. New Orleans Hornets
9. Houston Rockets
10. Memphis Grizzlies
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
13. Golden State Warriors
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Sacramento Kings
Eastern Conference:
1. Orlando Magic
2. Boston Celtics
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Washington Wizards
6. Miami Heat
7. Indiana Pacers
8. Toronto Raptors
9. Chicago Bulls
10. Detroit Pistons
11. New York Knicks
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. New Jersey Nets
15. Milwaukee Bucks
Western Finals: Spurs over Lakers
Eastern Finals: Celtics over Magic
Finals: Spurs over Celtics
MVP: 1. Dwight Howard, 2. Dwyane Wade, 3. Lebron James, 4. Brandon Roy, 5. Chris Paul
ROY: 1. Jonny Flynn, 2. Tyreke Evans, 3. Blake Griffin, 4. Ty Lawson, 5. Brandon Jennings
DPOY: 1. Dwight Howard, 2. Rajon Rondo, 3. Shane Battier, 4. Jermaine O'Neal, 5. Luc Richard Mbah Moute
Sixth Man: 1. Allen Iverson, 2. Rasheed Wallace, 3. Lamar Odom, 4. Carl Landry, 5. Ty Lawson
Most Improved (discounting second-year players): 1. Andrew Bynum, 2. Al Horford, 3. Greg Oden, 4. Aaron Brooks, 5. Joakim Noah
COY: 1. Gregg Popovich, 2. Stan Van Gundy, 3. Flip Saunders, 4. Jim O'Brien, 5. Rick Adelman
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I just don't see that. Even adding Richard Jefferson, age is catching up to the Spurs. This is basically the same team that went out in the first round to Dallas last season. While the Spurs are very good, and will probably win 50 this season, they just don't have enough gas in the tank for an extended playoff run.
My Celtics and Spurs picks are both based on an optimistic assumption about key players being healthy come playoff time, but there's certainly more risk with those teams than with the Magic and Lakers.