Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Seventh Seed High (and Rising?)
Posted by Chris Herrington on Wed, Jan 27, 2010 at 12:07 PM
The Grizzlies had an assist last night from the Charlotte Bobcats, who beat a fading Phoenix Suns team 114-109 for an overtime road win. The loss put the Suns a few winning-percentage points behind the Grizzlies, vaulting the Grizzlies into 7th place in the Western Conference standings. How much higher can they go? Well, according to Chris Mannix of CNNSI.com:
Memphis has a chance to rocket up the standings. Look at some of the teams around the Grizzlies. Houston is overachieving, Phoenix is fielding offers for its second-best player (Amar'e Stoudemire) and the Blazers' injury woes have to catch up to them eventually. The Grizzlies' phenomenal interior strength — who would have thought Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol would have formed the best 1-2 inside punch before the season? — will prevent any sustained droughts and long losing streaks. Remember, throw out the 1-8 start and Memphis has won nearly 68 percent of its games. That's a better winning percentage than all but one team (Los Angeles) in the conference. My prediction: The Grizz lock up the No. 6 seed by April.
A mere two games separates the 4th through 11th teams in the West right now, which makes every night from here on out relevant to the standings, but tonight's games, in particular, present a lot of room for movement. Working through the 4-11 seeds:
4. Utah 26 18 .591 7 ½
5. Portland 27 19 .587 7 ½
Utah will be at Portland tonight, so the Grizzlies will definitely have a chance to gain ground on one of these teams tonight.
6. San Antonio 25 18 .581 8
The Spurs are at home against the Atlanta Hawks. The Spurs have lost three straight at home (to the Jazz, Rockets, and Bulls) and with their annual "rodeo trip" (eight-straight on the road) looming in February, surely they're going to break that streak. But the Hawks, 29-14 overall, 11-9 on the road, are a tough one. The Hawks have been rolling of late, winning six of their past seven, including road wins against the Celtics and Rockets.
7. Memphis 24 19 .558 9
The Grizzlies are at Detroit tonight. The Griz have lost close ones in their last two road games, but should have a better chance for a win tonight against a Pistons team that is 15-28 overall and only 11-11 at home. The Pistons have lost their past two home games, to the Pacers and Trailblazers. Hopefully, the Grizzlies will be motivated by their embarrassing 96-74 home loss to the Pistons in the home opener.
8. Phoenix 26 21 .553 9
No game tonight.
9. Houston 24 20 .545 9 ½
The Rockets are at home, but will have to contend with the streaking Denver Nuggets, winners of nine of the their past 10 games. The Rockets, meanwhile, are 4-7 in January and have lost three of their past four at home.
10. New Orleans 24 20 .545 9 ½
The Hornets are at Golden State tonight. The Hornets have been playing pretty great of late. They are 6-3 on the road in January with two losses coming in overtime (Denver and Detroit) and the other by only four points (Philadelphia). The flailing Warriors, with only one January home win against a decent team (Chicago) might not be much help.
11. Oklahoma City 24 20 .545 9 ½
The Thunder is at home against the Bulls, which might seem like a good shot at a win, but the Bulls have been the Grizzlies' biggest helpers of late, having beat Phoenix, Houston, and San Antonio, all on the road, over their past three games. Can they keep this unlikely streak going?
Comments (9)
Showing 1-9 of 9
Kudos to Geoff Calkins today for clearly and unequivocally admitting that he was wrong about the Zach Randolph acquisition. (Unlike Chris Herrington, he was big enough to do it without hiding behind a sea of stats, which seems to be Chris' modus operandi.)
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*sigh*
I love that the Grizzlies are good again and I'm thrilled at how well Randolph has played. He's been awesome, on and off the court. I'm not crazy that this success has somehow spurred a Griz-fan gestapo out to demand apologies and penance from anyone who dared to express rational skepticism over an acquisition that ended up working out well, skepticism that was rooted in a real track record and that was shared -- to one degree or another -- by pretty much every NBA follower in the country who wasn't a Grizzlies fan and least half the ones who were.
I guess I should apologize for not predicting a significant mid-career transformation and also for daring to deploy statistics to try to explain that transformation, which I know is a silly thing to do on a forum dedicated to writing about issues relating to the Grizzlies. Unless you think that Randolph's success this season isn't rooted in a changed game, in which case you're wrong. If you think that transformation should have been easily predicted then you were either a prophet or a huge optimist.
I was certainly wrong -- even when considering the reasons for optimism, which I did quite extensively -- about the just how well the Randolph move could have worked out. I've said that before and will say so again. I was wrong. I'm not sure I was wrong about it not being the best long-term move the team could have made, given the prospect of signing a David Lee (two years younger and having a similarly all-star level season) for more years at a lower per-year salary, something that might have lessened the concern about being able to keep this team together going forward.
You should def apologize for that Chris, because you were the ONLY one who didn't see it coming from Randolph.
Oh.
Wait.
You were among the 99.9% of humanity who didn't see this coming from Randolph. "Sigh" indeed. Your piece on WHY Randolph has been so surprising was phenomenal and among the best quality NBA writing anyone could hope to read. Anywhere. Keep it up. And igore jabs from idjits.
For the record, I think Strait Shooter is a smart and good commenter and welcome his presence on this forum. We just disagree on this issue.
Except it is not a simple disagreement on the issue. And you have been more than clear on missing on Randolph. And you were certainly not alone in missing on Randolph. But the article on HOW he changed his game was particularly revelatory. And I don't think any reasonable person could have read that in light of your other work and taunt that you are "hiding behind stats". But, I yield to your civility, Chris.
And, you wrote that solid piece guessing at how this could work out back when he was acquired. Of course, you didn't think it would, but you were more than fair in working through where it might somehow go right.
Oh, and on David Lee? I disagree with you at this point that he still might have been a better option. I don't think his particular game would have meshed as well with Gasol as Randolph's has. Then again, I could be wrong on that as well.
To add to that thought, Chris, there is a real leadership component to what Randolph has brought to the team that is something that I don't think David Lee could have brought. And I for darn sure had no clue that Randolph had "team leader" in his toolkit.
I was very happy when we got Zach on the cheap. If nothing else, I was glad that we took a "Grizz killer" out of the equation. I even hoped that the change of pace to a small market would fit Zach's personality better. There was no way, whatsoever, that anyone in their right mind could have predicted that Zach would come into camp in the best physical shape of his career and would have suddenly blossomed into a leader.
No one.
Chris,
You were not alone on not predicting the turn around by Z-bo. No one in media expected this trade to work as it has for the Griz. Seriously, people google "Zach Randolph Memphis trade" and find a positive article. Next year is the final year on Z-Bo's contract at $17M. He is auditioning for the extension. It will be interesting to see what he gets with the looming labor negotiations after the 2010-11 season. This will be an issue for Rudy as it is entirely possible that he will make less than Conley next year.
Statistics weren't the main reason Memphis was attacked for the Randoph deal (save for the ball sharing related numbers), it looked like a horrible idea because of intangibles in particular. Zach looks different physically and plays different. I love watching him play and he fits well on the team and in the city, his willingness to lead on the court and in the teams's charitable efforts is as endearing as Josh Paster's work ethic and goofy smile. But c'mon, this isn't a surprise? Nofaithin has it right, I don't remember positive reviews of the Randolph move from anyone outside of Memphis nor did it seem a positive option around here before it was announced.
It worked out well, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Grizz had solid reasons to think it would because of the relationships people in the organization had with Zach. The CA article praising Heisley is a little much given the draft picks and the PG situation. "What if" is never a smart game to play but if being at a Grizz game is part of one of my dreams anytime soon I expect to see Tyreke at point and Dajuan Blair backing up in the post... not that I don't understand passing on Blair. However give me some stats on the PG situation. Because I suspect numbers match up with what I'm seeing on the court better than Caulkins' taking one bad play as damning evidence against the OJ for PG crowd or the ephemeral development of Conley.
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