Thursday, February 12, 2004

TENNESSEE PRIMARY RESULTS : A BRIEF ANALYSIS

TENNESSEE PRIMARY RESULTS : A BRIEF ANALYSIS

Posted By on Thu, Feb 12, 2004 at 4:00 AM

TENNESSEE (2/10 primary): Kerry Nabs Double-Digit Win; Gore's Endorsed Candidate Comes In Fourth
from The Hotline

ÊÊÊÊÊ John Kerry won the TN primary. By AP's count, Kerry won 31 delegates, while John Edwards won 20 delegates and Wesley Clark won 18 (AP, 2/11). Results with 100% of precincts reporting (AP, 2/11).
Ê

WH '04 Dem Primary Results
    
                    votes  %age
    
    Kerry          151,436  41%
    
    Edwards         97,746  27
    
    Clark           85,182  23
    
    Dean            16,094   4
    
    Sharpton         6,105   2
    
    Lieberman        3,191   1
    
    Uncommitted      2,708   1
    
    Braun            2,435   1
    
    Kucinich         2,277   1
    
    Gephardt         1,406   -
    
    LaRouche           297   -
    
    




Exit Polls -- 51% Of Voters Decided In The Last Week
ÊÊÊÊÊ The National Election Pool exit poll; conducted 2/10 by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky Int'l; surveyed 2,513 Dem primary voters as they left randomly selected polling locations across the state; margin of error +/- 3% (AP, 2/11).
Ê

WH '04 Dem Primary Vote
    
                     Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Lib Mod Con Wht Blk
    
    All              46% 54% 75%  5% 20% 38% 45% 17% 74% 23%
    
    Kerry            41  42  46  20  31  46  41  31  40  47
    
    Edwards          27  27  25  26  32  23  28  32  31  15
    
    Clark            22  23  22  30  25  20  24  26  21  28
    
    Dean              4   4   4   4   7   5   4   4   5   3
    
    Sharpton          21  2   51  21  21  6
    
    Kucinich       1  -1  21  1   -1  1   -
    
    Lieberman      1  1   -   5   21  -   21  -
    
    Uncommitted    1  1   -   2   21  1   -1  -
    
    
    
                    18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Union Military
    
    All               7%   22%   49%  23%  15%     24%
    
    Kerry            36    42    39   49   43      46
    
    Edwards          25    28    27   26   25      24
    
    Clark            22    20    25   20   21      22
    
    Dean              8     5     4    4    5       3
    
    Sharpton          3     2     2 1   4       2
    
    Kucinich       1    2     -    -    -       1
    
    Lieberman      1 1 1   -    -       1
    
    Uncommitted       3  1 1   - 1      1
    
    
    
    When Did You Finally Decide Who To Vote For?
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Today/Last 3 days/
    
     Last week             51%  19%    4%   31%    43%     1%   1%    1%
    
    Last month/Before that 48   25     5    24     41   11    2
    
    
    
    Did You Vote For Your Candidate More Because You Think:
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Can defeat Bush        37%  17%    2%   21%    59%     -%   -%    -%
    
    Agrees with you on
    
     the major issues      55   27     5    31     31   11    3
    
    
    
    Which Comes Closest To Your Feelings About The Bush Admin:
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Angry                  39%  20%    5%   25%    47%     1%   -%    1%
    
    Dissatisfied, but not
    
     angry                 45   26     4    24     43      -    -     2
    
    Satisfied, but not
    
     enthusiastic          11   24     4    37     27      -    2     2
    
    Enthusiastic            3   14     7    35     14      5   10     5
    
    
    
    How You Feel About The U.S. Decision To Go To War With Iraq:
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Approve                26%  22%    4%   32%    34%     1%   2%    2%
    
    Disapprove             69   23     4    25     44   1   -     2
    
    
    
    Issue That Mattered Most In Deciding How You Voted Today:
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Economy/Jobs           39%  18%    3%   32%    42%     1%   -%    2%
    
    Health care/Medicare   19   19     5    27     45      - 1    2
    
    The war in Iraq        15   29     6    16     47   1   -     -
    
    Education               9   25     5    28     36   1   -     2
    
    Taxes                   6   28     8    19     41      -    2     2
    
    Nat'l sec./Terrorism    4   28     4    23     31      -    5     3
    
    
    
    Candidate Quality That Mattered Most In Deciding How You Voted Today:
    
                           All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucin Lieb Sharp
    
    Can defeat Bush        25%  15%    1%   18%    64%     -%   -%    -%
    
    Cares about people
    
     like me               19   23     2    40     29      -    -     3
    
    Has right temperament   5   23     9    41     17      -    2     5
    
    Stands up for what he
    
     believes              20   27    11    19     34      2    2     3
    
    Has right experience   10   37     2     8     50   11    -
    
    Has a positive message 14   19     4    42     34   11    1
    
    He understands TN       2   20  1   49     28      -    -     2
    
    

ÊÊÊÊÊ ABC's Langer notes "some Southern soft spots" for Kerry -- he won whites "by a comparatively narrow nine points"; "did much less well with conservatives"; and "did less well with independents." However, "Kerry's strengths more than compensated" (release, 2/11).
Ê LOCAL RACES: ASSESSOR OF PROPERTY - DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - MEMPHIS 277 of 283 prec. reporting Rita Clark, 24,174 - 59 percent Michael Hooks, 16,827 - 41 percent ASSESSOR OR PROPERTY - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY - MEMPHIS 277 of 283 prec. reporting Harold Sterling, 3,155 - 59 percent Bob Kahn - 2,216 - 41 percent GENERAL SESSIONS COURT CLERK - DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - MEMPHIS 277 of 283 prec. reporting Roscoe Dixon - 21,697 - 56 percent Rebecca Clark, 17,287, - 44 percent GENERAL SESSIONS COURT CLERK - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY - MEMPHIS 277 of 283 prec. reporting Chris Turner - 7,459 - 87 percent Charles Fineberg - 1,136 - 13 percent

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