Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Early-Voting Turnout Figures Have Democrats Worried and Republicans in a Groove
Posted by Jackson Baker on Wed, Jul 28, 2010 at 8:48 PM
And that was indeed Upton’s message Wednesday in a telephone call from Nashville, where news reports indicate that the same phenomenon is occurring as in Memphis — crossover voting.
Only there it’s apparently a case of Democrats voting in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Here it’s just the opposite: Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary, presumably to influence the outcome of the Cohen-Herenton 9th District congressional race, then finishing up, most likely, with party-line votes for the countywide races on the ballot.
Upton, who’s in the state Capitol to try to arrange some antidotes to the situation in Memphis — mayhap a drop-in by presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mike McWherter to fire up the troops? — is tumbling out figures as we talk.
“It looks like early voting in Shelby County right now is 54 percent Democratic primary and 46 percent Republican,” Upton says. He then calculates that at least 2 percent of the Democratic primary vote is the aforesaid Republicans crossing over (others might reckon the number a mite higher).
That would bring the county’s turnout down to 52 percent Democrats and 48 percent Republicans, and Upton, not only a longtime state Democratic committee member, but increasingly one of his party’s major strategists, declares that ratio “too close for comfort.”
He goes on: “If it stays that way, everybody on the ballot” — meaning, every Democrat on the county ballot — “is in danger of losing.” And for Democrats, who own a sizeable demographic edge in Shelby County, that would be truly dismaying. Upton estimates that a comfortable turnout level to end up with would be 60 percent, a proportion he says was achieved by county Democrats in the general elections of 2006 and 2008.
Meanwhile, Lang Wiseman, the Shelby County Republican chairman, is feeling his oats. At this point, he isn’t conceding any party losses at any point on the countywide ballot. He probably wouldn’t, anyhow, but he seems to mean it when he says, “Things are looking very good for us right now.”
Van Turner, the county Democratic chairman, professes to be glad his counterpart is feeling so sanguine.
“There is a finite number of Republicans in Shelby County, and they’re going to run out of them. We’re already beginning to experience an up-tick in our voters, and that’s going to continue. And on Election Day we’ll be getting everybody we can to the polls. We’re going to have a whole bunch of winners, more than ever before.”
Turner’s tone is exhortatory and optimistic, Upton’s is blunt and admonitory, but both Democrats are on the same mission — to motivate the party’s troops to start turning out in larger numbers.
Meanwhile, finite number or not, Republicans in Shelby County seem to be fired up already — either because of the governor’s race between Bill Haslam, Zach Wamp, and Ron Ramsey, which grows ever more heated, or because of the aforementioned wish of a sizeable number to vote in the Cohen-Herenton race, or because GOP cadres are reading and hearing these accounts of a higher-than-usual Republican turnout like everybody else (for the record Upton says the extent of it has been exaggerated). And that may be breeding more of the same.
Comments (13)
Showing 1-13 of 13
At the end of the day, African-Americans aren't voting because they don't want to vote for Herenton because they like Cohen and they don't want to vote AGAINST Herenton because he is still a historic figure. So, they're not voting.;
We have no strong Democratic Gubernatorial Primary because everyone but McWherter bailed, and McWherter has avoided public visits to Memphis like it has a disease. That will cost him BIG TIME in November, when the folks he shunned until he needed them decide that they don't need HIM.
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Hey, how about giving up the racist LeftWing"Cracker" shit? It insults me, and I am tired of it. You racist bastard! Drop your racist insults right now. Oh, and stop trying to dictate to your intellectual and political superiors from your seat in FedEx's customer service phone bank.
Gosh durn, Dave, you think the electorate might finally have gotten tired of your reverse Uncle Tom positioning that went out when Bill Farris died?
Just hope your Buhler money doesn't disappear before your retirement is secure.
Oh no, someone reminded me of the days when we owned land and people. Worst insult ever. Terrible, terrible. Un-called for.
Presidential Elections tend to attract voters. Mid term elections tend to have a dropoff. The party of the president "traditionally" tends to be hurt in mid-term elections. I think Johnson and Nixon were rare exceptions.
in the last few years, I go to the polls for early voting, I have noticed that there is a stronger republican vote in early voting. I think this has to do with the traditional way the democrats get out the vote.
I would like to make the observation that there is also a "finite" number of democrats in Shelby County. Even if you count the dead.
I think another contributing factor JB doesn't touch upon and is a controversial issue, is white dems splitting their vote.
What will it mean to the Shelby County Democratic Party when the only Democrats in contested races that win are Regina Morrison, Steve Cohen, and Steve Mulroy?
Leftwingcracker - why should McWherter be wasting campaign funds for the primary? He's running unopposed. I think it is wise for him to save his efforts for the real race.
You better believe that Republicans are crossover-voting in District 9! Being intelligent people with integrity, Republicans want the same by voting for Congressman Steve Cohen.
In our last mayoral race, white Memphis sat on the couch while a small number of black voters re-anointed king Willie. If they'd got out and voted, Willie would be the one enjoying his couch or the last few years, without the drama. But carol Chumney couldn't turn on a lightswitch.
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