In yet another rule change, the academy says they're going to be nominating no fewer than 5 and no greater than 10 films for Best Pic. A film must get above a certain threshold number of votes to make it into the club.
Here are my predictions for the nominees for 2012 Best Picture Oscar, in order of my certainty, from "mortal lock" (The Help) to "looks good and has a pedigree, so, sure" (Adventures of Tintin).
The Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tree of Life*
A Dangerous Method
The Adventures of Tintin
*Has played in Memphis this year
There is an extensive list of films to be considered for Best Pic, though. I've seen, um, one of these, and most of them haven't been seen by anybody. You might be more wise to just take the field rather than my 10 picks. Most of the acting nominees will likely be from this group, too:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Carnage, We Bought a Zoo, The Iron Lady, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Rum Diary, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Twixt, My Week with Marilyn, Drive, Albert Nobbs, 50/50, 360, Rampart, The Skin I Live In, Margaret, Midnight in Paris, Contagion, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Melancholia, Young Adult, Jane Eyre, Like Crazy, Take Shelter, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Note: I've seen Moneyball and am eliminating it from having a chance at a Best Pic nomination.