Thursday, January 10, 2013

Oscars 2013: Best Picture Predictions 2.0 (UPDATED)

Posted By on Thu, Jan 10, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Ben Affleck in Argo
  • Ben Affleck in "Argo"
By now you've heard what everybody in town is talking about: The Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday!

[Commence rioting, looting, Roger Rabbit-ing, and generally acting a fool.]

[Ten minutes later.]

Revealing the nominations will be none other than Oscar-show host Seth MacFarlane and acting hawtie Emma Stone. Now is not the time to discuss MacFarlane's qualifications (or lack thereof — snort) for hosting. First, we've got to get the nominees officially on the record, which will happen at 7:30 a.m. CST, on many reputable television channels, internet web pages, and Twitter.

So, what movies are getting nominated for Best Picture?

In August 2012, I took a crack at the 10 nominees for Best Picture. That was, mind you, back before I or anyone else had seen most of the movies. So you'll forgive my couple of missteps, which were based on the trailer or the buzz I was conjuring in my mind months before they'd be released. My list from August is at the end of this story, for transparency purposes.

Here's my brand-new list, which will no doubt be entirely accurate. So sleep in on Thursday, because I've already spoiled this for you:

Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
  • Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
2013 Best Picture Oscar Nominee Predictions 2.0 (In order of certainty):
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wild Cards:
Amour
Magic Mike

2013 Best Picture Oscar Nominee Predictions 1.0, August 24, 2012 (In order of certainty):

The Master
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight
Django Unchained
Anna Karenina
Argo
Quartet

Hard to keep out but I can only have 10, so I’m keeping ’em out:
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Hyde Park on Hudson
The Hobbit
Great Expectations

UPDATE:
The nominations are out. In lackluster fashion, I guessed 8 of 9 Best Pictures.

Keep all the ones I predicted but take out The Master and Moonrise Kingdom, ranked 4th and 7th respectively on my confidence scale — cringe — and add Amour.

The Academy could've nominated anywhere from 5-10 for the category, with a minimum number of votes needed to make the cut. Either Moonrise Kingdom or The Master or maybe even Skyfall just missed the mark.

Only nine were in, which I think is stupid. This whole awards thing is about marketing your industry. You nominate whoever/whatever is best in that particular year. Some years are better than others. Regardless, fill that category up! [See also: 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame, 2012 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.]

Plus, why aren't the Oscar nominations announced during a primetime special a la Selection Sunday? Jeez, Academy.

Also: I've upgraded my feelings on Seth MacFarlane hosting, from downright perturbed to cautiously pessimistic. Announcing the nominees, he made a Hitler joke, which I appreciated. But he made it at the expense of Michael Haneke, the great director of Amour. Save your jokes for Oscar night, MacFarlane, when votes have been cast and opinions have been formed. Gah!

[Puts down the coffee, breathes deep.]

Sunday, February 24th, is the Oscars show. Stay tuned for earlier that week, when Memphis Flyer film editor Chris Herrington and I dig deep in multi-part fashion on these nominations and tell you who will win. And, at noon on Saturday, February 23, on Sports56 radio (87.7FM, 560AM), I'll appear on Memphis Sport Live's Annual Academy Awards Handicapping Special. Let the Hunger Games begin!

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