A Year of Transition Cork the bubbly, folks; the Millennium’s not for another year. Meanwhile … by Jackson Baker In politics as in other pursuits, we have come to the end of a year, a century, and a millennium. Well … to the end of the first two, anyhow. For all the thrill and newness of that new lead digit and those triple aughts, the actual fact is that the coming year will be the final year of the current millennium, not the first year of a new one. But at this point, it would poop all the celebration parties — including our own, displayed in this theme issue — to try to make that fact stick. I mean, the champagne’s already bought, the tickets paid for, the luggage packed. … Or is it?. In truth, the word last week was that most people intended to stay home and see the New Year in quietly. It was as if they knew they had 365 more calendar days to go before a new era really thrust itself upon them. And some of them needed that year’s worth of grace, badly. Especially some of those in politics: • Don Sundquist is the most obvious case. Tennessee’s governor is the Flyer’s Man of the Year for 1999 because in the past year he did an utterly unforeseen turnabout on his entire previous life and political career (see the editorial on page 8) and began acting like an activist, a populist — indeed, almost like a revolutionary. Who’d ’a thunk it? It has been a full year since Sundquist began the dramatic series of proposals for tax reform that have changed the dialogue of state politics and charged it with urgency. But it is clear that the governor needs at least another year to make something come of it; • Willie Herenton, with his much-heralded reorganization plan, is another politician who has set some dramatic forces in motion, but Herenton — newly reelected as Memphis’ mayor with a commanding mandate — seems to have the reins firmly in hand. “Seems,” we say, because if there is anything predictable about Herenton (other than the fact that he always seems to win in the end, both elections and life crises) it is that he loves both ends of the see-saw and, after going up high, likes to flirt with the down side. As it happens, the passage from up to down to up again usually takes a whole year. Watch That Space; • Jim Rout is another mayor for whom the oncoming year is crucial. Republican Rout wants to be able to make the transition that his predecessor as county mayor, Democrat Bill Morris, failed to accomplish — that from Shelby County’s chief executive to Governor of Tennessee. Granted, Rout proved himself unusually shrewd in the way he handled a stiff local property-tax increase — getting shock troops out there early to explain the need for a tax hike and keeping the heat off himself. But the issue may still come up if and when Rout makes his run for governor. His other problem: U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant, another semi-local public figure, wants the governorship in 2002, too, and he draws on something of the same constituency; • What Bryant, who represents a 7th District that starts from Memphis’ eastern suburbs and goes all the way to Nashville’s western edge, wants to do, by the way, is scrunch his way as unobtrusively as possible into the political center in preparation for his gubernatorial race. That’s what he’ll be working on in the coming year; so don’t be surprised at the number of moderate-sounding things you may hear him say. (I mean, it’s not as if Bryant, who was an impeachment manager and interrogated — if that’s the word — Monica Lewinsky, had anything to prove to the Right Wing.) The real question — and we’ll know the answer to this, too, during the next year — is whether all the Democrats will take the bait and lay back, waiting until 2002 to field a serious candidate in the 7th; • David Kustoff, the former Shelby County Republican chairman whose artful handling of things over the last four years kept him firmly ensconced in his party’s center, astride its several factions, will probably hover in that moderately conservative mode at least for another year, during which he will continue his present service as Tennessee director for presidential candidate George W. Bush, the well-known “compassionate conservative.” After that, lawyer Kustoff — a likely candidate for the 7th District congressional seat to succeed Bryant — may start displaying the taste for philosophical red meat which the decidedly right-of-center district has in recent years shown a preference for. On the other hand, the dapper, trim Kustoff is a disciplined and careful eater — both literally and figuratively. So we’ll see; • Harold Ford Jr., the 9th District’s Democratic congressman, probably won’t use the entire next year to continue the waning pretense that he’s looking into a Senate race against GOP incumbent Bill Frist. In fact, he can’t, since the election itself will intervene. Besides figuring out how to extricate himself from the posture of prospective candidate as gracefully as possible and as soon as possible, Ford — who has pushed the envelope of public expectations a bit much — will have the task of avoiding the Crying-Wolf syndrome as he may (and with more realistic prospects) have to start the whole game up again, looking to a very likely 2002 run for the Senate seat that GOP incumbent Fred Thompson is rumored ready to give up. Oh, and did we mention that the once highly eligible Mr. Ford will become a newlywed in May? We congratulate him; • The aforesaid Senator Thompson has a decision on his hands — to run for reelection or not— and he, too, must make it during the next calendar year. Reportedly he also has a hankering for the governor’s office (and if he acts upon this interest, you can be sure that Bryant, Rout, and, for that matter, U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary, another Republican prospect, will all find their feet growing cold.) Then again, maybe Thompson — who is rumored to be fed up with Washington, really fed up — might be induced to act out his discontent. Know what I mean? Okay, he’s a little longer of tooth now than when he last appeared as an authority figure in films, but who have they turned up in the meantime to replace him? James Cromwell? Give me a break! • Then there’s Bill Frist, who may, after all, get a free ride back to the Senate during the coming year. (This despite the fact that a lot of his fellow doctors are mad at him for his naysaying stance on allowing patients to litigate against HMOs.) Does the state’s junior senator have higher ambitions? It’s the Tennessee disease, after all, and some say that he does. He has wangled the opportunity, in any case, to be an official respondent to President Clinton’s upcoming final State of the Union address. Maybe we can tell something from that; • Not to overlook the 8th District congressman, John Tanner, the Democrat who is regarded by many people as a sure thing to run for governor in 2002. Tanner, the most cautious man in politics, may finally be ready to make his move for the Governor’s Mansion. So may such other fastidious Democratic types as Nashville’s congressman Bob Clement and State Senator Roy Herron of Dresden. (They may all be beat to the punch by Democratic chairman Doug Horne, who — if lacking, like the others, in the proverbial gem-like flame — does at least have money to burn.) • That about does it, except for — oh, sure, of course, Tennessee’s own, Vice President Al Gore. A fairly safe prediction: At the end of the upcoming year, Gore will either be president-elect of the United States of America or just another stiff looking for work. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.) Does all of this read anti-climatically? Make that ante-climactic. The big events, the real End-of-Epoch stuff, will happen on schedule — one year from now. Bet you a dollar.