RPI Blues March Madness becomes March Melancholy when an "expert" has his bracket revealed. by DENNIS FREELAND I never claimed to be a sports handicapper. Never. But by virtue of writing this column and appearing on radio shows, some people think I'm a sports expert. I'll admit it, I don't always discourage the idea. Then along comes the NCAA tournament and the office pool. Oh, how I dread the Monday after the first two rounds of the tournament are played. There it is in black and white, for the entire office to see. Just five places out of last -- FREELAND. The guy who has written the Flyer sports column all these years. The guy who is supposed to know what he is talking about. It's not as if I don't try, either. Each year I attempt a new strategy, with the same miserable results. A few years ago I decided that the Big Ten was the best conference in college basketball and weighted my picks to reflect it. Of course the Big Ten schools did a mass choke, making early exits and leaving my bracket in a mess. The next year I didn't go near any team from the Big Ten. That was the year the conference reasserted itself. Since then, I've decided not to put so much stock in conferences. This year, I decided to play it safe. I relied on the RPI (Rating Percentage Index). That is the formula that has been used by the NCAA since 1981 as a tool in selecting the at-large teams in the tournament. The RPI is simple. It contains three factors: the team's winning percentage against Division I opponents (25%), the team's schedule strength (50%), and the opponent's schedule strength (25%). Using the RPI made filling out my bracket simple. If two teams were really close in their RPI rank, I went by team statistics (I chose teams that rebound and defend). What a snap! After the first round finished on Friday night I was quite pleased with myself. Using my RPI formula, I had chosen 27 out of 32 games correctly. At last I would do well in my office pool, I thought. All the teams I had chosen to go a long way in the tournament were still in. Then came the weekend. The second round of the 2000 NCAA tournament had more upsets than a Memphis street has potholes. Not good for a strategy that relies heavily on RPI rankings. First Wisconsin (RPI 32) beat Arizona (RPI 3). Then Purdue (RPI 31) knocked off Oklahoma (RPI 10). When Gonzaga (RPI 35) knocked off St. John's (RPI 5), I lost my first Final Four selection. Sunday it got worse. Seton Hall (RPI 48) upset Temple. Tulsa (RPI 21) bounced Cincinnati (RPI 1). By the time North Carolina (RPI 41) beat Stanford (RPI 9) my bracket was shot. Three of my Final Four picks are out of the tournament -- before the Sweet 16! In the West Regional I don't have a single team left. Only Tennessee is left in the South, and I have them picked to lose their next game. Of the top-16 teams on the RPI list, only five (Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee, LSU, Michigan State, and Syracuse) actually made the Sweet 16. Of the top-10 teams in the RPI, only two -- Duke and Iowa State -- are still playing. So much for that strategy. Next year I may just throw darts. Could it be any worse? A Different Message Not everyone is enamored of the decision to hire John Calipari at the University of Memphis. I received the following e-mail message from a reader who wished to remain anonymous: "Regarding your statement in The Memphis Flyer: By hiring Calipari it sent a message to Kentucky, Duke, Indiana, and the rest of the college sports world: 'We're big time. We are going to challenge for a national title.' "Interesting tidbit: The coach of the last team to have its position in the Final Four vacated by NCAA edict was just hired by the only other school since 1980 to have its position in the Final Four vacated by NCAA edict. "Perhaps another message was sent -- directly to 700 West Washington Avenue, Indianapolis, Indiana, 317-917-6222." That, of course, is the NCAA administrative offices. THIS AND THAT: Rip Scherer starts his sixth spring practice this week. The U of M has more depth and talent coming back than at any spring practice since Scherer arrived. For Scherer, though, there always seems to be a but. In this case it is the uncertainty factor: six new assistant coaches. Included in that bunch is Joe Susan, the new offensive line coach, Scherer's fifth line coach in six years. Isn't it a shame that Jimmie "Snap" Hunter had to go to Life College to get a spot on the national stage? Hunter is expected to make himself available for the NBA draft after winning the NAIA player of the year trophy and leading his team to the NAIA title. If Hunter had spent all this time at a Division I school, he would have a better chance at the NBA. He is a classic case of a player who has to go to school to prepare for a career in professional basketball. There must be a better way.