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I don't take the figures to necessarily mean that. Could be the number of properties owned rather than rented stayed the same, just that the value of all properties declined and eroded the tax base ( total VALUE of all property to be taxed).
If the taxable property base is down and the population is up, I suppose that means property owners are moving out faster than renters are moving in. And that is celebratory because ... ??? And that will reverse blight how ... ???
Tom- Sorry, but another source of info I forgot to provide: feel free to read up on the methodology used by the Census Bureau to arrive at their estimates. Location: Census.gov
AP: Unfortunately the ACS has not compiled the one year census tract estimate for 2012 (yet), at least not at the American FactFinder site. Once that is published we will be able to i.d. population change, detailed demographic information, economic information and housing date by census tract. We already have that data for the 2010-2011 period which does show that the census tracts covering the downtown core and south bluffs (Tract 42 and 43) gained a combined 383 people in that period. Once you arrive at the FactFinder site, ckick on the “Advanced Search” tab and you will be whisked off to the amazing would of the Census and hardcore number crunchers. Boring but powerful stuff. The data contained here goes a long way to determine who gets what in terms of state federal funding, investments by major corporations, retail expansion, you name it. Depending on the request year (some data sets contain more info than others), it can tell you how many people live in the smallest of focus areas (census blocks- basically your immediate subdivision), how many are homeowners, what their average income is, their average age, how many kids they have, how old the kids are, what level of education has been received, how they are employed, how long they have been employed, etc… I would check all the tracts for downtown and midtown, but we are talking about somewhere between 30 and 40 census tracts depending on your definition of downtown and midtown, and I've already spent way too much time posting here today.
The following is also very helpful:
No one said or implied you had a 5th grade education, except yourself of course. I'm sorry if pointing out so many other factors you apparently did not consider offended you. Most, if not all , these trends were already in progress before 2012- that's what makes them a trend. Please see census.gov and http://factfinder2.census.gov/. Check the Business Journal and Memphis Daily News re: the shift to multi-family. Oh, and there is always Google. Search using terms like "census", "estimates", "2012", "Memphis", "Shelby County", "TN", "natural population increase rate", "infant mortality", "mortality", "in-migration", "out-migration", etc... Shelby County Head Start has great information on population and demographics for our area as does the University of Memphis Planning Department and Fogelman College of Business. There is plenty of data that backs my statement that there is thus far little reason to doubt the census figures. You employed two issues that are not directly related to population growth.
In fact, using the above information, the census gives us really detailed info. Just to pull a sample: Metro Memphis lost about 2.99 people per day to migration between July 2010 and July 2011 while during the same period, area’s population increased by about 20.6 people per day on the whole – due primarily to the difference between births and deaths. Also during that period, 2,933 more people moved out of the Memphis metro area to another U.S. destination than moved into it from within the country while 1,841 individuals from outside the United States moved to Memphis. Want to see the rest and results for 2012? Look it up yourself using the above info.
The main point of my post was there are numerous factors including demographics, economic factors, continued housing construction and housing market trends that all support an estimate that shows an increase in population. The two factors you employed are only enough to indicate otherwise if you limit your consideration to 25-45 year old adults with kids (that are of school age and whose parents choose to send them to public schools) and who live in a detached single family homes.
I would like to see that also.
I would also like to see which areas of town gained population. I am guessing midtown and downtown, but I might be very, very wrong.
The media, as a rule, has become a one sided mouth of liberal social correctness.
There is no longer any opinion except the correct opinion and it is sanctioned mainly by the IRS or some other government institution with authority to punish without cause.
Any deviation from social correctness or government sanctioned secularism and the media will attempt to debunk or at least trivialize that opinion. The news now being delivered is of no value to the “new” media if it doesn’t draw a tear of compassion or support the current agenda valued by the Democrats alone. Otherwise the airways would be overflowing with the corruption from Washington.
I cannot imagine why anyone would listen to the main stream media and expect anything but propaganda and meaningless trivia. Maybe because no one wants to hear what is really important to them anymore?
The new world order does not need people en mass that actually think or even capable of reason. They just require a limited number of warm bodies for their house cleaning and maintenance.
This latest IRS scandal pulled the heat off Bengasi and do you even hear about Holder and Fast and Furious? The game is played by Socialist masters and the foundation is shored up by the talking heads of MSM. The media is owned and operated by the corrupt and the sifted news we finally get is pretty worthless for making decisions. It is a pretty good bet that the people that tell the dirtiest, most damning stories are probably the only people that can be trusted to tell the truth.
Can you point me to the Memphis data for V2012 for city population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin? Link? My 5th grade education is holding me back.
Good points, and reading GR's post, I envy him.
Arlington and Lakeland don't have the commercial activity we need. I can do maybe 75% of my purchasing in Arlington, but to get anything out of the ordinary, I must head toward Bartlett.
It is not that much of a problem but does require a bit of planning I wish I did not have to do.
Like GR, about 50% of my street are retirees or those about to retire and most moved here for the lower cost of living and the safety and tranquility of the area. Very quiet and peaceful in the country. There are areas of Arlington where that mix is very different, lots of young families, mostly in somewhat lower priced homes. Overall, a great mix.
We have an extrordinarily good Planning Commission and they know that as our population continues to increase, more and more businesses are wanting in to provide needed services. Which is fine. We happen to have quite a bit of farmland within the municipal boundary that will still give Arlington a rural feel.
Still, I appreciate there are retirees who want a more upbeat lifestyle and like living in Memphis a whole lot better.
Actually I see little reason to believe why those issues run contrary to a population increase.
Not everyone lives in a house set on a quarter acre lot with 2.2 kids and a dog. Note AP's comment regarding young couples. Demographic information from the census does support the claim that not only are young adults marrying later in life they are also have children later and not as many. A decline in public school enrollment in no way takes into account private and home school enrollment. The number of vacant homes are decreasing, but multi-family rental (apartments) vacancy rates are extremely low. In fact, if not for this thing we call a “recovery”, the extremely tight multi-family market would likely be an indicator of a housing shortage. We also need to analyze the number of births vs. the number of deaths in light of recent data that indicates the infant mortality rate for Shelby County has declined by a full 5 deaths/1000 births as of late. In addition, believe it or not, there are even a few locations within the existing Memphis city limits where new housing has been completed since the 2010 census. A little here and a little there can quickly add up to a paltry annual growth rate of .57%.
Germantown is a unique suburb. The folks in Collierville, Arlington, Millington, Southaven probably can't really say the same thing.
But frankly, I just don't believe it only takes you 5 minutes of driving to get around Gtown. I work near Gtown and go there often on my lunch breaks. I'm usually just sitting at various traffic lights for that long.
Also, I wonder if the 60% retirees on your street all packed up and moved there upon retirement - or were they there all along.
I guess really the point I was trying to make is that the article you read is mere supposition. That's why I counterpointed with supposition of my own.
I live in a suburb and I rarely drive more than 5 minutes for anything. I get most everything I need not just within Germantown but on the East side of Germantown 3-4 minute drive to commercial areas, and I only reluctantly travel to the West side of Germantown or West Collierville on occasion to get things (which pushes me sometimes to close to 7-8 minutes in the car. I know Midtown well enough to know that access to necessities aren't any better unless you live right on top of a commercial area. I enjoy life in my little bubble. I have everything extremely close by, and usually I can get it all while only passing through one stop light to run my errands.
My street is about 60% retirees and about 40% young couples with kids. That's common because retirees often want a quiet, safe neighborhood. If people are having to delay retirement, it means more will stay in or closer to urban areas. That's what the articles were suggesting about the national trend.
Great story, Louis!
"Each year, the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP) utilizes current data on births, deaths, and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census and produce a time series of estimates of population, demographic components of change, and housing units." - U.S. Census report
I'd wait on commenting. Especially when this data estimate runs against what the community is being told about school enrollment being down, and the number of vacant homes increasing.
I get all my news from The Flyer. What else do you need ?
Good points AP, and it's not only the fact that folks like Ritz won't be in office much longer, but it's also that the best way we can stick it to them is to create these school systems and have them perform at an extremely high level while also having SCS make gains for the Memphis schools.
Proving our adversaries wrong for fighting this issue is the thing we can do to hurt them the most.
I always thought people moved to the burbs to save money. Lower property taxes, bigger bang for your real estate buck, easier access to WalMart.
And it especially doesn't make sense that people would want to retire in the burbs. Most retirees I know prefer to be closer to resources. They don't want to drive so many miles to run their errands.
We've been hearing of trends towards urban living for years now. I think maybe we're just finally seeing the numbers for it.
Well, we have discussed on the board several times that the key to any urban area regaining population is for that urban area to make itself more attractive to young families. The thought occurs to me that perhaps one of those generational shifts is people marrying later and having fewer children. I know that if I were single, I would be living in Midtown Memphis instead of Arlington. Saying that, it is still young, fairly affluent families Memphis needs.
IF the new SCS is able to increase its performance levels, especially if SCS becomes smaller and more tightly focused, that will go a long way to increase that attractiveness factor.
Whether or not great schools can make up for a comparatively high tax rate, I just do not know. But I hope so. I certainly hope that an improving economy will increase tax revenue for Memphis and that a Memphis tax rate decrease can be accomplished.
By Louis Goggans
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