A quick check on the net indicates a decline of prices on Natural Gas. I copied the following which indicates high inventory and lower demand based on mild weather:
Other Market Trends:
EIA Updates Its Residential Price Brochure: The Energy information Administration (EIA) has released the 2006 update of the brochure entitled Residential Natural Gas Prices: What Consumers Should Know. This brochure provides basic information to residential consumers concerning natural gas supplies and prices. It explains the factors that influence natural gas prices, summarizes EIA's projections for the coming heating season, and suggests ways for consumers to save on their natural gas bills. EIA projects that the cost of natural gas at the wellhead (commodity cost) will comprise 60 percent of the residential price this winter, because of market conditions that include weak natural gas production response despite increased drilling levels, declining net imports, high demand, and high crude oil prices. For the heating season of 2006-2007, EIA estimates that homeowners will pay about $1.07 per therm, or about $11.01 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), for natural gas. The nearly 18 percent decrease in price, coupled with an expected increase in consumption of about 4 percent, assuming normal weather, would result in a decrease of about 14 percent in total expenditure for gas by households.
EIA Reports on Technology-Based Oil and Natural Gas Plays: The Energy Information Administration released a report on November 8, 2006, about the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin, located in the north central United States, underlying North Dakota, eastern Montana, northwestern South Dakota, and into southern Canada. The report describes how production and reserves in the Bakken Formation, which was previously considered uneconomic, have greatly increased in recent years from using technology to convert unconventional resources into reserves. Oil and natural gas operators utilized detailed geologic data and new drilling and completion technology to achieve this success. Although the report mainly focuses on crude oil data, natural gas also has been produced in the Williston Basin for decades and the technology-based trends may also have large implications for natural gas. Montana reported that the Elm Coulee Field in the Bakken Formation doubled its oil production for the third year in a row in 2005 to 15 million barrels. Furthermore, between 1999 and 2005, crude oil proved reserves increased by 106 percent in Montana and 59 percent in North Dakota. In addition to production and reserve data, the report also provides information on the history, geology, and resources in the Williston Basin, and it describes several of the new technologies used there. The report is the first in a series intending to share information about technology-based oil and natural gas plays.
Natural Gas Transportation Update:
· El Paso Corporation’s Wyoming Interstate Gas Company declared a force majeure following a rupture on its pipeline system on Saturday, November 11, about 10 miles south-southwest of Cheyenne, WY. The rupture, which also caused supply backups on the Colorado Interstate Gas System, shut-in about 770 MMcf per day of gas production flowing to the Cheyenne Hub. El Paso said that owing to welding delays during the repair, it had to curtail all mainline volumes to zero through Wednesday, November 15, but expected to accept full nominations on Thursday.
· Pacific Gas and Electric Company declared a high-inventory systemwide operational flow order (OFO) from Thursday, November 9 through Saturday, November 11. Another high-inventory OFO was announced for Wednesday, November 15. During both periods, the OFO carried a 5-percent tolerance level with penalties at $1 per Decatherm.
· Starting on Thursday, November 9, Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company said it would accept nomination for interruptible storage injections across the system. The company also announced it is experiencing high linepack in the Texas area and does not have the ability to compensate for over-deliveries into the system, or for system users who take less than planned from the system.
Short-Term Energy Outlook
By Micaela Watts
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