Monday, December 9, 2013

Quincy Pondexter diagnosed with stress fracture, 'out indefinitely.'

Posted By on Mon, Dec 9, 2013 at 1:24 PM

Quincy Pondexter is out indefinitely with a stress fracture.

The Grizzlies have officially announced that guard Quincy Pondexter has been diagnosed with a "tarsal navicular stress fracture in his right foot." The team's statement said that Pondexter is out indefinitely. Other sources, most notably Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, have said that Pondexter will miss the remainder of the season:

Twitter was buzzing with speculation about the nature of Pondexter's injury after he tweeted this this morning without context:

Info surfaced that Pondexter had an MRI today, and it was all downhill from there.

While Pondexter's injury isn't as big of a blow to the injury-ridden Grizzlies as the loss of Marc Gasol, his absence will be felt by a team that was already sorely lacking in production at the wing. With Tony Allen and Ed Davis missing games with injuries, and Zach Randolph still recovering from a toe injury, the Grizzlies have been bitten by the injury bug this season, and hard. What remains to be seen is (1) how this injury will affect the ability of the Griz to tread water until Gasol returns and (2) what the team plans to do, if anything, to shore up those positions.

I've heard confirmation of another Wojnarowski report: that the team is working out free agent guards Reggie Williams, Darius Morris, and Seth Curry this week, in addition to Kendall Marshall, a name I didn't hear confirmed. So it seems like the Griz are likely to make some sort of a small move to shore up the rotation.

The season is only 25% of the way over, so it's too early to make any kind of "there goes the season" proclaimation, but it does feel like the Grizzlies can't catch a break this year, and like things are one or two more bad breaks away from slipping out of their hands. Pondexter had struggled this year, but is a good enough player that he was likely to return to form at some point soon. Now he's missing entirely, and the Grizzlies have yet another hole to fill.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Game Notes: Grizzlies 82, Warriors 108

Posted By on Sun, Dec 8, 2013 at 9:27 AM

It would have been surprising a month ago, but the Grizzlies missed Ed Davis against Golden State.
  • Larry Kuzniewski
  • It would have been surprising a month ago, but the Grizzlies missed Ed Davis against Golden State.

For the first time since 2010, the Golden State Warriors beat the Grizzlies Saturday night, and boy did they beat them. Of course, one can argue how fair the fight was to begin with. Still without Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies were also missing Tony Allen to a hip contusion suffered Tuesday against Phoenix, and missing Ed Davis to a left ankle sprain suffered Thursday against the Clippers. To make matters worse, Quincy Pondexter left at halftime with a "right midfoot sprain," leaving the Grizzlies without two starters and two rotation players—and in Gasol and Allen, missing two of the big reasons they're able to beat the Warriors every time the two teams play.

Game Notes

— It's the same story as the Clippers, and a story that we're going to see over and over again until Marc Gasol returns: without Gasol in the game, the opponent is able to use their biggest, longest defender on Zach Randolph. Thursday it was DeAndre Jordan. Saturday it was Andrew Bogut (instead of David Lee, from whom Z-Bo steals lunch money every time these teams meet at full strength.)

— The lack of Allen and Pondexter meant far too much playing time for a monumentally bad Jerryd Bayless, who has struggled all year outside of the two games against Boston. Bayless was 0-11 from the floor (0-2 from 3) in 25 minutes, with a rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Going to the advanced numbers doesn't make it look any better. Bayless has been off all year—at first because he was being used as the only backup point guard, and now because he can't hit a shot to save his life. One hopes that the poor shooting will improve and get closer to his career averages at some point, but it hasn't happened yet.

— I thought Jamaal Franklin should have played more last night. The Grizzlies were down double digits for most of the second half, and Bayless clearly wasn't getting it done, so why not? If the game is already mostly out of reach—and I get that an NBA game is never really out of reach before the last few minutes, but... the Grizzlies had nine players—and you have a rookie shooting guard who probably won't do any worse than the guy who is shooting 0-11, what's the risk? Why not play Franklin and see what happens?

— Steph Curry didn't hit a shot in the first half, but finished with 22 points. Remember when the Grizzlies drafted Hasheem Thabeet instead of him?

— The injury bug has decimated this Grizzlies team right now. With Gasol out, Allen out, Davis out, Pondexter out, and Z-Bo still struggling with his toe injury, the team is having to play lineups that were never intended to play 25 minutes together for 25 minutes. Against the other teams' starters. I think Calathes/Bayless/Miller/Leuer/Koufos is okay, but probably not against Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and Blake Griffin, you know? The Grizzlies have got to get healthy. Like I tweeted last night, it was already going to be a challenge for them to go .500 without Marc Gasol. Losing other players left and right to injuries while Gasol is out makes that seem like Mission: Impossible.

— I'm not sure where I'd put the Grizzlies' playoff odds right now, but sitting 9-10 having already lost to every team in the division at least once, they're certainly a lot worse than most observers thought they would be at any point this season. Remember back in August when the Sports Illustrated NBA preview came out, and they projected the Grizzlies to finish ninth in the West, and Grizzlies fans were surprised by that (this author included)? In hindsight, it doesn't seem as crazy. Without Marc Gasol, this team just isn't as good. The offense without Gasol is mostly ugly (and especially without Gasol and without the Ed Davis P&R sets that were starting to work so well against Phoenix and L.A.) and the defense, especially on the interior, is terrible unless Kosta Koufos is on the floor, and even then, that's only one good interior defender. It's becoming clear that the Grizzlies are going to have to fight for their lives if they want to make the playoffs in this year's West.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Quick Look: Grizzlies vs. Warriors

Posted By on Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 12:38 PM

Nick Calathes may be called upon tonight if Tony Allen sits again.
  • Larry Kuzniewski
  • Nick Calathes may be called upon tonight if Tony Allen sits again.

Tonight's game marks the third time the Grizzlies have played the Golden State Warriors this season, and the second time the two teams have played in Memphis. Without question, Golden State is a good matchup for the Grizzlies—when the Grizzlies are healthy. The matchup of Andrew Bogut and Marc Gasol at center can be fun to watch, but Gasol has an undeniable edge on Bogut, and Zach Randolph loves nothing more than embarrassing David Lee at every opportunity.

Without Gasol—and potentially without Ed Davis, who sprained his left ankle in Thursday night's loss to the Clippers and at time of this writing was still classified as "day to day" (and aren't we all?)—the matchup changes a little. The Warriors haven't beaten the Grizzlies since 2010, but if Zach Randolph is still a little rusty returning from his toe injury, and Randolph, Kosta Koufos, and Jon Leuer are the only three bigs that the Grizzlies have to work with, even the Warriors' subpar bench bigs (led by the abominable Marreese Speights, having a monumentally bad season) might be enough to make a difference simply because they're not going to have to play so much.

Tony Allen also missed Thursday's Clippers game with a hip contusion he suffered Tuesday against the Suns. If for some reason Allen can't go again tonight (I don't expect him to miss another game) look for the Grizzlies to play Nick Calathes more than usual. Calathes' length made him a tricky defensive matchup for Steph Curry the first time these two teams played (Jerryd Bayless missed that game with a tweaked knee) when the Grizzlies stomped the Warriors using a tightened rotation mainly featuring Koufos, Miller, and Calathes off the bench.

It's still too early in the season to call any game a "must win," but this is an important game. The Warriors, with a record of 11-9, are eight in the Western Conference standings, and the 9-9 Grizzlies are eleventh. These are the sorts of games that add up as the season goes on and the playoff standings start to shake out, and the Grizzlies have to be careful not to give up too much ground while Marc Gasol is still on the mend. In this year's West, .500 is not likely to be good enough to get a team into the playoffs, and the Grizzlies are there right now, treading water. These games at home against an opponent on a road SEGABABA are key games the Grizzlies need to win to keep their heads above water.

The matchups tonight aren't as favorable for the Grizzlies as they usually are, but if the Grizzlies can replicate what they've done to the Warriors in previous encounters—drag the pace down to glacial through defensive execution, creating stops and forcing the Warriors to run halfcourt sets—they should be able to make it a close game, and that's all they need to be able to get the win: to not get down 15 and have to fight back. They've done that a lot this year, and it has rarely worked in their favor.

But either way, we shall see.

Friday, December 6, 2013

Clippers 101, Grizzlies 81: Wars of Attrition

Posted By on Fri, Dec 6, 2013 at 9:55 AM

Zach Randolph had a tough time while guarded by DeAndre Jordan Thursday night.
  • Larry Kuzniewski
  • Zach Randolph had a tough time while guarded by DeAndre Jordan Thursday night.

The Grizzlies went into tonight gaining Zach Randolph back from missing two games with an ingrown toenail, but they lost Tony Allen, who missed tonight's game with a contusion to his hip suffered during Tuesday night's rout of the Phoenix Suns. Without Allen and without Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies were already starting at a disadvantage to the Clippers.

The lack of Gasol, in particular, immediately creates a match-up problem for the Grizzlies, because DeAndre Jordan can then be used to guard Zach Randolph full time. Jordan's length and his athleticism make him the basketball equivalent of Kryptonite for Z-Bo, because (especially this year with his improvements on the defensive end of the floor) Jordan is able to put a lid over the top of Z-Bo's already floor-bound game and keep him from doing much other than shooting midrange jumpers all night. When Gasol is in the game, Jordan has to guard Gasol, leaving Blake Griffin as Randolph's primary defender, and we all know how that usually goes.

The antidote to that tonight—in the first half, anyway—was Ed Davis. Davis is the Grizzlies' most purely athletic player, and his speed and his smart play in the pick and roll made him able to counteract the "in the mud" nature of Randolph, who was playing with a little more rust and a little less crispness than normal. In seven minutes spread across the first quarter, Davis played well on both ends of the floor...

...and then he went down with a left ankle sprain and didn't come back, leaving Kosta Koufos, 80% of Zach Randolph, and Jon Leuer as the Grizzlies' only big men for about thirty minutes of basketball. Without the element of athleticism and speed to the rim (especially as a roll man) the Grizzlies settled into isolation, midrange basketball for the rest of the game, and it worked about as well as you would expect it to for a team shooting 35%: about as well as a drunk guy can walk up a down escalator.

In the end it was fatigue and this general In-The-Mud-nosity (I should trademark that) that did the Grizzlies in, in part because of the injuries and in part because they just weren't playing alertly once the Clippers were able to start stringing baskets together. The whole thing just kind of collapsed, and then it was 101-81 and the game was over.

Game Notes

— Ed Davis left the game in the second quarter with a sprained left ankle and didn't come back. He's day-to-day with it, and Griz folks told me he'd be coming in for treatment Friday but that's assuming he knows how to drive on the sheet of ice that's supposedly going to be covering everything today. (Side note: two Grizzlies I talked to who wasn't worried about ice? Jon Leuer, who went to Wisconsin, and Kosta Koufos, who came to Memphis from Denver.) The Grizzlies, who looked like they had a loaded frontcourt at the beginning of the season, are now down to two healthy bigs (Koufos and Leuer) and a Zach Randolph who looked to me like he was still struggling with his toe injury a little. One wonders whether picking up a free agent big for the minimum wouldn't be a bad idea just as insurance.

— Nick Calathes struggled against the Clippers, for what I see as two reasons: First, the Clippers' backup point guard is Darren Collison, who is a fairly good defender, but second, the personnel groups he was on the floor with. Calathes struggles when he's not surrounded by fast-moving roll men and shooters, so when he's on the floor with bigs who are waiting for an entry pass instead of setting a pick, he's not quite sure what to do, and dribbles a lot. It's something I assume he'll get better at with practice; the Grizzlies have been moving away from iso-heavy sets as of late (enabled by Davis, who has excelled in the pick and roll in Marc Gasol's absence) and if Calathes wants to succeed at the NBA level he's going to have to figure out how to play with personnel groups that don't necessarily fit his style.

— In hindsight, the Grizzlies are pretty fortunate to have staved off the injury bug having an effect on how well they perform. In 2011, Rudy Gay went down for the rest of the season, but the team still had Randolph, Gasol, Allen, and Conley to rally around, and turning Hasheem Thabeet into a Shane Battier rental meant the Grizzlies essentially replaced Gay with a 3's-and-D small forward perfect for their style of play. In 2012, Zach Randolph went down, and the Grizzlies were able to insert Marreese Speights into the starting lineup, who played surprisingly well in Randolph's absence. Last year was mostly injury-free (except for Randolph's nagging ankle injury from March onward). This year, this is clearly not the case. Jerryd Bayless, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph have all missed games with injuries, and now Ed Davis is banged up. It feels like half the Grizzlies' team is hurt. And, as discussed in my column earlier this week, that doesn't bode well for the Grizzlies' playoff hopes. We'll see. With any luck, Gasol will return sooner than hoped for, but when has luck been on the Grizzlies' side this year?

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Grizzlies 110, Suns 91: Here's Jonny and Eddie

Posted By on Wed, Dec 4, 2013 at 8:11 AM

Well, it wasn't the Tuesday night game against the Phoenix Suns that we were expecting, but it was the one that we got—and what a game it was. The Grizzlies, without Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol for the second straight game, came out and punished the Suns' bigs all night long, with Ed Davis and Kosta Koufos both racking up double doubles (Jon Leuer was only one rebound short) and Davis and Leuer both scoring over 20 points.

Jon Leuer put up 23-9 in Tuesdays victory over the Suns.

It wasn't an end-to-end win, either. The Grizzlies were ahead after one, but found themselves trailing by 8 at halftime after being outscored 35-23 in the second quarter—partially because the Suns started hitting lots of jumpers, but also because the Grizzlies didn't have good defensive lineups on the floor. If they had come out and played a flat third quarter, which they've done on occasion this season, the game would've been over then, except there wouldn't have been any bench players to play in garbage time because they were all playing. Instead, the Grizzlies came out and scored 36 in the third while holding Phoenix to 20, and maintained a lead of their own through the rest of the game.

One obviously wishes for Randolph and Gasol to return to the lineup soon, because the matchups won't always be this favorable, but it was great to see Koufos, Davis, and Leuer—and especially Leuer, who has struggled to get minutes in this frontcourt—come out and play big minutes and play them well. All told, the three of them racked up 58 points, 33 rebounds, and 7 blocks. The inside game also led to a double double for Conley, who had 18 points and 14 assists. Seven Grizzlies players (the starting five of Conley, Allen, Prince, Davis, and Koufos plus Leuer and Bayless) scored in double digits. An all around team win, against a team that was supposed to be terrible but has been playing above .500 so far, while missing two of the team's three best players.

Three Things I Liked

— Ed Davis was great. He was great on offense, where he hit jumpers I wasn't convinced he could hit, and fought and scratched for every rebound, and drew contact as often as he could, eventually breaking out his own variant of the Z-Bo mean mug. He was great on defense, where his athleticism led him to make some plays (and yes, Dave Joerger might have been telling him where to be on defense from the bench, but with Marc Gasol not there, I figure that's OK). It was the game that Ed Davis' supporters have been wanting him to play all along, and yes, it was against Phoenix, but that's exactly the type of game Ed Davis should have against Phoenix.

— Equally great was Jon Leuer. He's known as a stretch big, somebody who can shoot from way out to keep defenses honest, but when given a great deal of run like he was Tuesday night, Leuer proved he can do more than that. He had three or four monster dunks. He blocked shots. He was using post moves and hitting hook shots. He also shot 1-2 from three point range. Leuer was everywhere on both ends of the floor Tuesday night, and as a result he had career highs in scoring and rebounds. I'm not going to say I wasn't surprised by Leuer's big game, but I wasn't shocked. The guy is a good basketball player. The Grizzlies' heavily pick-and-roll oriented sets Tuesday night really opened he and Davis up for scoring opportunities against Phoenix's bigs. Leuer is a capable player, and when Randolph gets back, it's going to go back to being hard for him to find the minutes he deserves, and that sucks, but that's the way basketball is sometimes. Looks like the preseason Jon Leuer might not have been a fluke.

— Tony Allen scored eleven points on eleven shots, which is more efficient that he's been as of late. Several times Tony Allen took a pull up jumper and it went in, something that hasn't happened much in the past, if we're honest. I don't want Allen's newfound offensive prowess to come at the expense of his defense, but if his shooting can stay at this level—that is, passable—maybe he can provide just the tiniest bit of space that the Grizzlies' lumbering bigs (Gasol and Randolph, not Davis and Leuer, who do no lumbering) need to operate. Maybe. Not if he gets carried away with it.

Three Things I Didn't Like

— Ed Malloy was Mr. Technical Foul on Tuesday night. Tony Allen got one for complaining, and then Eric Bledsoe got one for complaining, and then Goran Dragic got one, presumably for saying something to Jerryd Bayless that made Bayless want to fight him. I'm not sure it takes much to make Jerryd Bayless want to fight somebody, though.

— Nick Calathes was terrible, especially against Dragic and Bledsoe. He dribbled out two straight shot clocks looking for a pass that never came, and when he made the pass, it was too low and the bigs had to pick it up off the floor before they could do anything with it. I'm not overly worried about it, though. Calathes is a rookie, and Dragic/Bledsoe is a good frontcourt. Even if it weren't, you have to be okay with a few bad nights for a young guy like that if you want him to develop into the player he can be. So, yes, he was awful. But I don't think it was a referendum on his qualifications for NBA play.

— Quincy Pondexter sat on the bench again, this time for showing up his coach during the Grizzlies' loss to the Nets on Saturday. Pondexter went on a hot streak and then returned to the bench staring down Joerger, who hadn't been playing Pondexter due to his crappy start to the season. Turns out that was a bad idea, and several have said that Pondexter was rebuked for that behavior by coaches and teammates alike, and he sat out Tuesday night's game as a result. Pondexter's a good guy, so with any luck this was just an isolated incident of a guy letting his emotions get away from him. Quincy has had a pretty miserable 2013-14 season so far, from the poor play to the broken nose, and now it's all this. Hopefully things turn around for him, and soon.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Grizzlies Gut-Check: The Four Outcomes

Posted By on Tue, Dec 3, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Mike Miller came here to win a championship. How likely is that outcome for the Grizzlies?
  • Larry Kuzniewski
  • Mike Miller came here to win a championship. How likely is that outcome for the Grizzlies?

I think it's time to have a little chat about the Grizzlies, this season, and expectations. There are four possible outcomes for this season for Grizzlies—four potential ways for the season to end. I'd like to take you through them and then talk about what we're watching and what we're likely to see when it's all said and done for 2013-14.

Outcome #1: The Grizzlies have home court in the playoffs, return to the Western Conference Finals.

To my mind, this is the expectation of most Grizzlies fans going into training camp and preseason, even given the change from Lionel Hollins to Dave Joerger as head coach and the shuffling of deck chairs small roster moves made in the offseason. The Grizzlies seemed like a team that was one or two shooters and a less-tired Gasol/Randolph tandem away from making a serious run at an NBA title.

If I'm honest, though, I'm not sure this is ever a reasonable expectation. The Western Conference is even tougher this year than it was last year. There are 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and 15 teams in the West. As of right now, the West has 12 teams at or above .500 (and one more, Minnesota, at .474) and the East has 3. Yes, three. Rudy Gay's Toronto Raptors are currently leading the Atlantic Division, and they have a 6-10 record.

My point is this: when the whole Western Conference is as good as it is, and all of these teams are competing at this high level, every single game counts. Rightly or wrongly—and believe me, I do not want to get into that debate here, regardless of how I feel about it, because it's a done deal—the Grizzlies were coming into this season with a new head coach, and with a new head coach, it's reasonable to expect an adjustment period. "Adjustment period" is a euphemism for "losing games." Losing games means a worse seed, and in this year's West, matching last year's 56-win total was going to be a hard challenge even without changes at the top.

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Monday, December 2, 2013

Weekend Recap: Let's Talk About Nets, Baby

Posted By on Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 7:40 AM

Ed Davis got the start in the place of Zach Randolph Saturday night.
  • Larry Kuzniewski
  • Ed Davis got the start in the place of Zach Randolph Saturday night.

Saturday night at the FedExForum was the first Grizzlies game since the arrival of Zach Randolph in 2009 that neither Randolph or Marc Gasol have played in. It was also an ugly game in which the Grizzlies began at a disadvantage personnel-wise and ended that way, too. Yes, the Nets have injuries, too, but they've been dealing with those injuries much longer—and regardless, the absence of two of the Grizzlies' three best players proved to be too much to overcome.

Randolph was declared out on Saturday as the result of an ingrown toenail that had to be cut out. (My grandfather told me one time that he cut an ingrown toenail out with a pocketknife. I'd like to see Z-Bo try that.) With Gasol out, the loss of Randolph dealt the Grizzlies' whole game—but especially the offense—a crippling blow, and it showed on the court: poor shooting, poor ball movement, a general lack of togetherness and an inability to stop the Nets' recently-returned Brook Lopez, one of the better centers in the league when healthy. The absence of Gasol meant the Grizzlies were essentially helpless against Lopez inside, especially with Ed Davis in a bit of foul trouble.

Overall, it was a pretty miserable game to watch, as the Grizzlies got down big, made it a close game in the third, and proceeded to go down big again. We've seen some games that were ugly because the Grizzlies made them that way, and the ugliness was what was essentially "Grizzlies" about the game—almost an identity thing. This was not one of those games; it was just ugly.

Three (Well, Two) Things I Liked

   • Quincy Pondexter appeared to have returned from the dead being sentenced to a lifetime of sitting on the end of the bench, scoring 22 points in 21 minutes. Pondexter was 3-5 from 3. At the end of the third quarter, it looked like Pondexter was staring down coach Dave Joerger, and it was clear while watching that Pondexter was playing with a chip on his shoulder. He got into a little bit of trouble once he'd scored fifteen or so of this points when he then tried to take over the game down the stretch, doing too much. Pondexter is at his most valuable to this team when he plays within himself and doesn't try to take his man off the dribble every time he gets the ball. But it was certainly a welcome sight to see Pondexter contributing again.

   • All things considered, the Grizzlies' "bench" (which, for this game, consisted of guys who don't always play) made some good contributions. Ed Davis had 10-8 in his 30 minutes, and Kosta Koufos had 10 points and 11 rebounds in his third Grizzlies start. Koufos' rebounding has been a bright spot of his first stretch of games as a starter. Jon Leuer struggled to space the floor, but both he and Pondexter, who have been sitting a lot lately, were able to make positive contributions. Those guys are going to come in handy again at some point this season, so it's good to see them have the ability to play well when they're called upon.

   • Honestly? There's not really a third thing I liked about this game. It was ugly—hard to watch. The Grizzlies were out of sync, moving the ball poorly, struggling to create anything resembling a good look at the basket, and just barely functioning on defense.

Three Things I Didn't Like

   • Another game where Tony Allen (1) struggles to shut down his man—in this case, the bigger Joe Johnson, who ended up scoring 26 points on 15 shots—and does a poor job of knowing when to help and when not to help and (2) is tied for most field goal attempts (12). For all of Allen's great cuts to the basket and willingness to attempt a layup in traffic to draw contact, it seems like he's taking a lot of open jumpers this year, and there is a reason he's open for those jumpers. More concerning than the poor shot selection are the struggles on defense. Allen's help defense has been poor since the Spurs series last year, and he continues not to respect spot-up shooters the way he does a "big name" ball-handler. Which is natural, I guess, but it allows the Grizzlies to get torched by spot-up shooters. The gaps in Allen's defense this year are a concerning long-term trend—one that I hope gets reversed as the season rolls on.

   • Jerryd Bayless apparently only shoots well against the Boston Celtics. Those are the two "Jerryd Bayless" games so far this year. The rest of the time, he's had stat lines like the one he put up against Brooklyn: 1 for six shooting, one assist, 0 for 3 from long range. The Grizzlies need Bayless to contribute a scoring punch off the bench, and so far he hasn't been able to find that rhythm this season.

   • I know this is hard-hitting basketball journalism, but the Grizzlies just aren't that good when you take away two of their top three players. The Griz were already missing Marc Gasol's distribution and playmaking on offense and on defense, they've been missing his presence inside, guarding the lane and telling everyone else where they need to be. Taking away Randolph in addition to Gasol just means their primary post scoring threat is also gone, and so the offense is just as hobbled as the defense. It's not a situation I'd like to see the Grizzlies have to deal with for any significant stretch of time, so with any luck, Saturday night was an aberration.

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