Tuesday, September 21, 2010

With New Poll Suggesting She's Far Behind Cohen, Bergmann Opens HQ

Posted By on Tue, Sep 21, 2010 at 11:58 PM

Bergmann addressing supporters Tuesday night
  • JB
  • Bergmann addressing supporters Tuesday night

A new poll by Yacoubian Research suggests that the 9th District congressional campaign of Republican nominee Charlotte Bergmann is essentially no more viable than a primary challenge to incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen by former mayor Willie Herenton had been.

Herenton lost to Cohen by the margin of 4 to 1. Bergmann fares better, but just barely, in the Yacoubian survey, which was completed on September 7. In a sample of 205 “likely” 9th District voters, varied by race, sex, gender, age, and income in proportion to district ratios, 66.2 percent said they would vote for Cohen if the election were held today, while 22.9 percent opted for Bergmann. Answering “not sure” were 10.9 percent."

The finding didn’t’ seem to faze Bergmann, who opened her campaign headquarters on South Yates in East Memphis Tuesday night with a largish and overwhelmingly white and Republican crowd in attendance. “In order for us to win, we need all the Republicans to get out, and we need at least 15 percent of the Democrats,” Bergmann told the attendees, who included state Republican chairman Chris Devaney of Nashville.

The Yacoubian poll, exclusive to the Flyer, has Cohen winning large majorities among Democrats and independents, with Bergman predominating only among Republicans. The incumbent also was preferred by voters in all income categories except those making more than $70,000 a year. African-American voters chose Cohen by large majorities, and Caucasian females also liked him by a narrow margin. Bergmann had more supporters among Caucasian males. Cohen was the favorite in all age and education categories.

“I find it especially striking that Bergmann, an African-American female, polled only 1 percent in that category. That fact should weight very heavily on November 2, “pollster Berje Yacoubian said.

Looking for a silver lining, Bergmann and her supporters might be encouraged by the fact that white males favored her by 45.5 percent to Cohen’s 39.4 percent, and that her edge over Cohen among declared Republicans was 76.4 percent to 15.9 percent. Yacoubian also found the latter statistic noteworthy.

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