Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Is Poll Showing Burgess Win a Bellwether?

Posted By on Wed, Aug 1, 2018 at 11:38 PM

One of the local races being watched for evidence that there is (or isn’t) the likelihood of a Democratic “blue wave” in Thursday’s final election results is that for Shelby County assessor.

The Chism Strategies firm, headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi, offers some last-minute evidence, via poll numbers, that Democratic nominee Melvin Burgess has a substantial lead over his Republican opponent, Republican Robert “Chip” Trouy.

Claiming a margin of error of plus-or-minute 5 percent, the Chism poll of “457 likely county general election voters” was conducted on July 25th via the IRV (Interactive Voice Response” method — i.e., by robocall. It shows Burgess drawing more positive responses than Trouy by a margin of 52.6 percent to 25.4, with 22 percent “unsure.”

Burgess, now finishing his second term as a Shelby County commissioner, was reported as leading with both males and females overall, and with a lead among African Americans of 75 percent to 3 percent. Trouy had a reported lead among Caucasians (41 percent to 35 percent) and Asians (33 percent to 0), with respondents describing themselves as “other” polling for Burgess by a margin of 48 percent to 33 percent.

Clearly, the sample cannot be extrapolated fully to the entire voting population (0 percent of Asian voters for Burgess?), and robo-polls are considered suspect by some analysts, but Burgess backers and Democratic strategists at large see in the poll evidence of potential success on August 2nd.

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