Monday, August 19, 2013

Oscars 2014: Best Picture Predictions

Posted By on Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 4:23 PM

The Monuments Men stars and is directed and co-written by George Clooney
  • The Monuments Men stars and is directed and co-written by George Clooney
We are 6 months 11 days away from the Oscars. (That's 195 days away in the metric system.)

Let that sink in. The Oscars are almost here. It's really only as long away as a baboon's gestation period, as any third-grader knows.

The Oscars are the best thing about American pop culture. I predict the Best Picture nominees every year; it's the least I could do. My prediction skills though ... I get mixed results. Here are my Oscars 2013 predictions. This time last year, I predicted correctly just 5 of the 9 ultimate Best Picture nominees. :( Or, to look at it another way, way back in August I amazingly predicted 5 of 9 Best Picture nominees!

This year is particularly tough, because I can easily get to 30 films I think have a good shot at being nominated. Note: most of these films haven't been released, even at film festivals, so no one has seen them. Many of them don't even have trailers yet. My prediction formula is: who directed the film, who is in it, what's it about, and how does the Academy generally feel about movies that have that mix of variables?

The real list of Best Picture nominees will number somewhere between 5 and 10. I've gone 10 strong, just in case.

2014 Academy Awards Best Picture Predictions 1.0 (in order of release date)
Fruitvale Station (Already released, Flyer review here)
The Butler (Already released, Flyer review here)
Gravity (October)
August: Osage County (November)
The Wolf of Wall Street (November)
American Hustle (December)
The Monuments Men (December)
Saving Mr. Banks (December)
Inside Llewyn Davis (December)
12 Years a Slave (December)

Here are another 20 films to consider, also in order of release date (subject to change). Together, these 30 films represent what I believe will be most though not every major category nomination, not counting Best Foreign Language Picture and Best Documentary.

The Way Way Back (Already released, Flyer review here)
Mud (Already released, Flyer review here)
The Kings of Summer (Already released in select cities)
The Spectacular Now (Opens in Memphis Friday, August 23rd)
Blue Jasmine (August)
All is Lost (October)
The Counselor (October)
Captain Phillips (October)
The Fifth Estate (October)
Nebraska (November)
Her (December)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (November)
Grace of Monaco (December)
Labor Day (December)
A Most Wanted Man (release date TBD)
Diana (release date TBD)
The Immigrant (release date TBD)
Serena (release date TBD)
Foxcatcher (release date TBD)
Devil’s Knot (release date TBD)

The real nominations will be announced on January 16, 2014, though you could hibernate til March, because I've already spoiled for you what films will be nominated.

The great Ellen DeGeneres is hosting the Academy Awards, her second time to do so (2007). The show will air on Sunday, March 2, 2014, on ABC.

Updated for grammar, 8/20/13 8:44 a.m.

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