It is perhaps appropriate, given the state of the Memphis Grizzlies
franchise, that the excitement and anticipation that greeted the team’s
acquisition of the number-two overall pick at last month’s draft
lottery has, in the following weeks, dissipated into anxiety and dread
among what’s left of the team’s fan base.
A month ago, moving up from number six (their pre-lottery slot) to
number two looked like a pretty good consolation prize in what was then
thought to be a two-player draft. Now, a few days before the draft,
things are not so simple.
It has become increasingly clear that the Grizzlies will not draft
and keep Spanish moptop-teen point guard and passing prodigy Ricky
Rubio with the second pick in the draft. Part of this may be because
Rubio and his agent, Dan Fegan, have made it abundantly clear they have
no interest in coming to Memphis. But this lack of interest also
appears to be a two-way street. Essentially, the kid has no champions
in the Grizzlies’ war room.
Further, there are enough questions about Rubio — his
legal issues with his Spanish team, his youth, his athletic
limitations, and lack of scoring punch — that he’s no longer
being portrayed around the league as the obvious second-best prospect
in the draft (following consensus top pick Blake Griffin).
I still think Rubio’s franchise-altering potential warrants the
number-two pick, but the Grizzlies apparently don’t agree, and as the
draft approaches, the likely scenarios are these: If the Grizzlies keep
the pick they are highly likely to select UConn center Hasheem Thabeet,
a 7’3″ shot-blocking specialist with a raw offensive game. Grizzlies
owner Michael Heisley has wondered why he shouldn’t take the big man
for his defensively challenged team and apparently hasn’t gotten a
persuasive answer to that question. Thabeet — derided as
“Thabust” by his most vociferous detractors — is a
controversial pick among fans and media, but there appears to be as
much consensus for him as anyone else among the team’s
decision-makers.
The competing scenario is a draft-day trade, with the Grizzlies
presumably selecting Rubio or even Thabeet and moving them to another
team (likely destinations: Minnesota, Sacramento, New York) for a
package of multiple assets. My sense is that Grizzlies general manager
Chris Wallace is looking for a deal, with Thabeet as a fallback
option.
The wildcard scenario is the Grizzlies throwing the whole draft for
a loop by picking someone other than Thabeet or Rubio at number two.
Arizona State guard James Harden has been presented as the prime
contender in the national media, but I detect more enthusiasm among
team insiders for Davidson’s Stephen Curry and the University of
Memphis’ Tyreke Evans — both prime targets if the team ends
up trading down.
The prospect of a Thabeet pick is disappointing: Shot-blocking is a
limited attribute and Thabeet’s lack of both clear offensive ability
and a palpable mean streak suggests stardom is unlikely. Further,
drafting Thabeet would mean using the team’s best asset for a position
where the team is already in decent shape (I’m not convinced Thabeet
will be a better pro than incumbent Marc Gasol) and not addressing the
team’s two biggest needs: a more physical power forward and more
perimeter firepower on the bench. This puts more pressure on the rest
of the team’s offseason, though maybe that’s not such a bad thing.
The most encouraging thing about the looming draft is the prospect
of the unknowable. A year ago, all of the talk heading into the draft
was about discussions between the Grizzlies and Miami Heat for the
number-two pick. What actually happened — dealing with Minnesota
at number three for O.J. Mayo — was something no one outside
the organization saw coming. Like last year, expect the team to be
active — in discussion, at least — and for the
options to begin narrowing only very close to the draft.
Whatever happens on draft night, it should only be the start to a
vitally important offseason. The Grizzlies have money to spend this
summer, but it’s hard to find anyone around the league who believes
Heisley is ready to open up his wallet. For a variety of reasons (more
on this to come), this summer is the right time to spend. Will Heisley
let the Grizzlies get back in the game? Fans — those who are
left — should demand it