“Missouri’s Cooter Rattled by Earthquake.”
Now there’s a headline you don’t see every day, but it sat atop the London Daily Mail’s reporting on the magnitude 4.0 earthquake that jiggled parts of the Mid-South last week. Of course, it’s possible the Brits weren’t aware that Americans had long ago taken an 18th-century West African word for “turtle” and turned it into a euphemism for certain nether parts, but I suspect the Fleet Streeters knew exactly what they were doing with that bit of wordplay.
Another report began, “Solid shaking reported in the Cooter region …” And yet another headline read, “Earthquake Shakes Tiny Cooter.” But really, when the internet gives journalists such rich material to work with, you can hardly blame them for taking advantage of it. Humor — what a concept! We are grateful, believe me. And we’re also grateful that there was no damage from the mild Cooter quake. It could have been much worse, as history — and current earth science — make clear.
First, the history: A little more than 200 years ago, between December 1811 and February 1812, three earthquakes of around 8.0 magnitude originated near the little Mississippi River town of New Madrid, Missouri. The quakes caused building damage in St. Louis and Cincinnati, the nearest cities to the area at the time, and tremors were detected in numerous central, southern, and eastern states, even as far away as Connecticut. Miles of river bluffs collapsed into the Mississippi; Reelfoot Lake was formed, along with thousands of acres of new swamp; 19,000 acres of land were literally liquified. Observers in southern Missouri said the Mississippi River ran backwards for a time.
The good news is that back then the Bootheel and most of the land surrounding it for hundreds of miles was sparsely populated, so structural damage and the human death toll was minimal. Memphis — now the closest major city to the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) — wasn’t founded until 1819.
Now for the not-so-good news: Scientists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) say a large earthquake centered on the New Madrid fault occurs every 200 to 800 years, and they put the odds of at least a 6.0 quake occurring in the next 40 years at 25 to 40 percent.
How bad could it get? In 2019, the USGS ran a simulation of the effects of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in the NMSZ and, ironically enough, centered it in Cooter. The report estimated that 11 million Americans live within the danger zone, with the most significant destruction predicted to occur in St. Louis and Memphis. Potentially damaging shockwaves from the simulated quake also reached Kansas City, Indianapolis, Louisville, and Birmingham. The study predicted 86,000 deaths, 715,000 damaged or destroyed buildings, and power outages to 2.6 million homes. Damages were estimated to be $300 billion in direct costs and up to $600 billion in economic costs via job losses, manufacturing shut-downs, transportation disruptions, and other impacts.
In 2023, USGS updated its predictions for major seismic events throughout the country, and gave the Missouri Bootheel a 75 to 95 percent chance of experiencing a “damaging earthquake” within the next century. I know math percentages are hard, but 95 percent seems pretty daunting, unless Donald Trump can reduce it by 600 percent or so.
But, unfortunately, thanks to Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE, it’s unlikely we’ll be getting any more of those scientific predictions from USGS. Millions of dollars in funding for research into seismology, water and flooding issues, and other national environmental concerns were slashed. Hundreds of USGS scientists lost their jobs. Hundreds of ongoing studies and research projects were summarily ended.
Meanwhile, there’s a fourth of the country trying not to think about it, mainly because it’s difficult to wrap your brain around a level of destruction so potentially vast. New buildings and bridges can be built to earthquake-resistant standards, but old buildings and homes? Not so much. And there’s literally nothing that can be done to stop an earthquake.
I know most of us got a few giggles from Cooter’s moment in the sun last week, and I don’t want to be Debbie Downer, but it seems to me that the billions of dollars a day being poured into a chaotic and senseless “war” would be better spent on upgrading our bridges, highways, nuclear plants, and other infrastructure. And while I’m at it, we need to fire the FBI director, who apparently spends his days drunker than Cooter Brown.