Thursday, June 25, 2009
The Case Against Thabeet
Posted by Chris Herrington on Thu, Jun 25, 2009 at 9:35 AM
With the NBA Draft only hours away, it is looking increasingly likely that the Grizzlies will select UCONN center Hasheem Thabeet with the second pick in a draft. A trade could still send the Grizzlies in a different direction, but the safe money at this point is on Thabeet. I've been against the pick but haven't really summarized my objections, so it's time to get those in before it's too late. Three reasons not to draft Hasheem Thabeet:
1. Value: My primary objection to a Thabeet pick has been that I don’t think it maximizes the asset the Grizzlies obtained by getting the #2 pick. This notion is predicated on Ricky Rubio being the consensus #2 player in the draft. If it’s true that the shine is coming off Rubio a little as NBA teams take a closer look, then maybe that’s no longer true. But I tend to believe that there is still sufficient interest in Rubio that what you can obtain in trade for the pick is more valuable than Thabeet.
2. Precedent: My radio partner Chris Vernon has been talking a lot this week about the lack of a correlation between being a big-time college shot-blocker and being a high-level pro, citing such former NCAA shot-blocking machines as Calvin Booth and Adonal Foyle. This is a persuasive point, but the counter-argument would be that none of the players Vernon cites were quite as highly regarded coming out of college as Thabeet.
But what's the history of players of both Thabeet's type and draft ranking? Not good. By my count, there have been only nine true centers taken with Top 5 picks since 1990. (There is a degree of judgment call here about what constitutes a true center. I can hash that out in the comments if anyone wants to challenge the list.)
Only four of these players were considered can't-miss franchise players:
Greg Oden (2007)
Yao Ming (2002)
Shaquille O'Neal (1992)
Alonzo Mourning (1992)
The success-rate here is three of four pending Greg Oden. But, no one considers Thabeet a clear franchise player. What about the true centers taken high that weren't considered obvious stars?
There have been five:
Andrew Bogut (2005)
Eddy Curry (2001)
Michael Olowokandi (1998)
Shawn Bradley (1993)
Dikembe Mutombo (1991)
From this group you have three busts, one serviceable starter (Bogut), and one star in Dikembe Mutombo. The clear lesson — and it only gets worse if you expand to Top 10 picks — is that reaching for size is gamble that doesn't usually pay off.
If it possible that Thabeet is another Mutombo — a dominant defender and rebounder who makes up for his offensive limitations? Yes. Is it likely? No. I do think Thabeet is a more fluid athlete than even a young Mutombo was and, thus, might have a little more offensive upside. But he's also not as strong, as tough, or as talented a rebounder. This is why I think more reasonable comps for Thabeet are Samuel Dalembert or one-time all-star Theo Ratliff. Quality starting centers are their best, but not #2 picks.
3. Marc Gasol: I’m starting to think this is my biggest issue with a potential Thabeet pick. Thabeet and Gasol are both one-position players. Can you pair them together against certain match-ups? I suppose. But playing them together with any frequency is a forced fit, which is why I fear the drafting of Thabeet sets the stage for the departure of Gasol, whom I think is now and very likely will remain a better player.
Gasol was a quality starting center as a rookie and can still get better: His conditioning can and should improve after a year of adjustment to the NBA game. I also think there are perimeter skills as a shooter and passer than haven't been fully. Plus he brings intangibles to the team in terms of mental and physical toughness and basketball I.Q. that I think are as valuable as Thabeet's shot-blocking. I see Gasol as an emerging team leader, which is hard to do with a heavily-invested-in #2 pick potentially pushing you to the bench or even, eventually, to another team. I think the team's frontcourt solution should come in pairing a rebounder and defender at the power forward with Gasol. If Thabeet were really a franchise center, then you have to take him and make the change. But I'm not convinced he is.
The Prospect of Being Wrong: I, of course, have to allow that I could be wrong about all of this. I've seen Thabeet play on television maybe half a dozen times. I've never seen him in person. I don't watch a ton of college basketball and my own personal prognostication history is decidedly mixed. (Examples: I was right about Dwyane Wade, whom I would have taken second behind Lebron James at the time. I was wrong about Deron Williams, who I thought was too slow and not as good a prospect as Raymond Felton.)
The people at the top levels of the Grizzlies basketball operations are professionals who do this for a living. They've invested a lot more time, effort, and expertise into these questions than I have, and there seems to be a pretty universal consensus on Thabeet. Does everyone in the room consider him the number two player in the draft? No, I don't think so. Does everyone consider him a viable pick at that spot? It appears so.
And the Griz war room is not alone in this regard. Chad Ford's "draft tiers" piece, which gauged consensus opinions among NBA general managers, had Thabeet as a top four prospect. Last night on ESPN's draft preview special, Jay Bilas ranked Thabeet second.
It should be said that this goes for Ricky Rubio as well, who would be my choice at #2 based on what seems to be his franchise-altering, fan-inspiring potential for a franchise that needs altering and a fan-base than needs inspiring. But maybe Rubio is as much of a risk as any candidate at #2. Bilas — who may have a non-college bias — was skeptical of Rubio, and John Hollinger was more persuasive in underscoring just how profound a problem Rubio's scoring difficulties could be in a transition to the NBA.
Comments (36)
Showing 1-36 of 36
well then Christ the question becomes what do we do with Marc and Darko and Hadaddi if we pick Hasheem.
I personally think he'll end up being pretty good, but how do we shake out our team?
like
dislike
If we take and keep Thabeet, Darko's obviously shipped off to one of the many groups looking for soon to expire contracts. Darko could always get a buyout and go back to Europe, as it has been suggested he desires. Haddadi would be back up in South Dakota.
Chris, in case you don't have enough to do today, see if you can put together a deal that would have Memphis drafting and keeping Rubio - trading Mike Conley and the 27 or 36 for an experienced 4 (not a superstar, just a good locker room leader that can help with this position).
And then take over the war room and make that happen.
Noooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please tell me this isn't happening .... Please ... Please.
I'm praying that Chris Wallace surprised me again. Please. Please. Please.
I don't think you would have to look to Rubio to be a scoring threat for a while. His facilitating to Rudy and OJ and Marc (and hopefully a good PF) would be enough that he wouldn't need to contribute heavily night after night on the scoring line. I actually believe Rubio will have an easier time creating scoring opportunities than Thabeet will.
But anywho... I guess we will know the outcome in several hours.
What % chance do you think there is that Heisley throws everyone's draft board into disarray by picking (and auctioning) Rubio (or even Evans for that matter)?
Your point about MGasol is a terrific one -- especially since he is a fan fave and is actually the guy who went on the record to defend Conley when Conley was on the block in Feb.
Chris, sorry but the I don't agree to the "Value" point... Ricky Rubio's "value" was mainly created by media hype from people like Chad Ford, Jonathan Givony, Yourself etc.
A lot of basketball coaches consider Rubio not that valuable and would prefer to have people such as Tyreke Evans, James Harden and Jonny Flynn on their rosters.
The "real" value of the #2 pick is that it is the #2 pick. It doesn't matter if the luster has worn a little off of Rubio or not, the issue is whether another team is worried that the player they really want is not going to be there at 4,6, 7 or 8 or 18.
GrizzleGM, sorry man but when has Rubio dominated international play? He played 13 min average in the Euroleague last season and was shooting 28% for 2 pointers and averaging 2.4 TOs for that little time...
http://www.euroleague.net/competition/play…
Oh, yeah... and he really domintated the Olympics averaging 4.8 pts on 3 assists while shooting 28% from the field...
http://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fe/08/olym/m…
and as for the Olympics, what is his PER 48 or 40 on his statline for playing against the best players in the world?
Or do you want to go by games where he played OVER 20mins 3 games out of 8
Dobromyr -- I don't think Rubio is all hype. The Euroleague stats you cite are a much smaller sample than his play in the ACB, not to mention his performance in various international tournaments and the context of his youth in all of this
But, you may be correct that his risk has been under-recognized by his proponents, which is why I linked the Hollinger piece, which does not predict stardom for Rubio.
this draft sux....just draft J Hill at #2 and really throw everybody off...."F" the rest of the league. :)
Go GRIZZ
Yes, I picked a 5 game stretch in the Euroleague and and an 8 game stretch in the Olympics... sorry but that is all he played Internationally last year. And you were the guys who said he "dominated international basketball", I am not saying he does not have certain skills, but he did not dominate in any way. Regarding his PER 40 in international basketball, he's averaging more than 5 turnovers and we all know that the per does not change the 28% from the field...
Chris, there are just a few really good teams in the Spanish league, the rest is crap.
Rubio was forcefed by Joventut who were investing time in him with eyes on his juicy buyout.
Everybody cites he's playing professionally since he's 14, but in terms of shooting and his body, he has not developed much for being 4 years in professional basketball.
I say we trade the #2 to Minny for the #5 and #18 picks, take Tyreke at #5 (if he is there, if not, James Harden or Stephen Curry), take Sam Young at #18, Demarre Carroll at #27 and Patty Mills at #36. Wouldnt that be considered a succesful draft? You get Curry/Tyreke in a 3 guard rotation with OJ and Conley, Sam Young to back up Gay and Carroll will be a great PF. I dont understand why he isn't charted to go higher. He is a bit undersized height-wise, but he is an aggressive beast.
Chris,
I think there's at least one glaring omission from your list of "true centers" taken within the top five picks since 1990.
In my view, Kwame Brown definitely belongs on the list. (Of course, this would help make your case against Thabeet.)
It could probably also be argued that Dwight Howard belongs on the list, although I'll concede that Howard is probably not as much of a "true center" in the mold of Kwame Brown and the players you listed.
Great article Chris.
Let me go on the record here. If the Grizz draft Thabeet, and end up trading Marc Gasol... I am done being a fan and following this team. I never thought I would say that, but team management that bad would make it impossible for me to continue investing my time and heart in this franchise.
Thabeet is going to be a bust. That is the bottom line. All the warning signs are there. And Marc is everything you so perfectly listed; a quality center (even as a rookie!), a team leader, and a fan favorite.
Choosing a player whose greatest potential is becoming the next Shawn Bradley (sorry, but comparisons to Mutombo are pie-in-the-sky dreams), would be possibly the worst pick this franchise has ever made.
They should draft Rubio, Evans, Harden, or ANYONE ELSE ahead of Thabeet. Hell, sell the pick for cash before drafting him! Even having to argue this point makes me feel like throwing up. Un-f'ing-believable...
This shouldn't be a hard decision. Just take Rubio. The Olympics is a fairly good indicator of his talent.
- As a 17 yo, he held his own against the U.S. team despite having to play left-handed for much of the game (fractured ligament in right wrist).
- He led his Olympic team in steals with 17 in only 148 minutes (the next highest was 8). Lebron led U.S. team with 19 steals in 198 minutes.
- He also led his team in assists (24). CP3 led U.S. with 33 in 174 minutes.
- He rebounded well (was tied for 3rd with M. Gasol, though Marc only played 128 minutes).
- Plus ... he's both younger and more experienced than anyone in the draft. He loves the game & will definitely get better.
Seems like a no-brainer to me. You've got to take Rubio.
Dobromyr, thanks man. I totally agree with NOT taking thabeet for alot of reasons, but I most agree with Chris's point about how he doesn't fit AT ALL with our current team. So, it makes no sense when you think that they say to draft the best player available, and you reach for a player you dont need. I hope there is some major maneuvering going on behind the scenes on the Grizz part. But, if there is not, it would be idiotic to not trade out of the 2 pick if you dont even take the best player available, and to do that, you take the best offer on the table.
Tell ya what ... I don't necessarily think teams should surf message boards and draft according to what the fans are saying there ... because, as I've stated, they're professionals, whose livelihoods are on the line in these situations. Their very futures are at stake. They study, interview, watch countless hours of video, ask gosh knows how many consultants and scouts about their opinions, know the salary implications, contract technicalities, etc. etc. ad nauseum. So, yes, they are much more educated than we on the particulars ...
BUT ...
you could also say that the people who invest the most of themselves, their dollars and time, are the people who care enough to visit boards like this one. The people who are their truest and most loyal followers. And, though the sample size is small, sure, don't teams have to at least look to these type forums and guage what the fan sentiment may be in situations like this one? Isn't it a very real possibility that the voices are an accurate representation of the silent majority? Does it mean anything at ALL to them that so many people are so enormously turned off by the thought of drafting Thabeet? By the thought of jerking Gasol around or dealing him? That people are threatening to let their season tickets lapse? That the player would bring absolutely ZERO excitement/energy to a fan base that desperately needs energizing? I mean, can they really afford to turn off anyone else? There aren't many folks left to turn off, at this point, no?
It just seems to me, that a franchise that has been disconnected since they got here (and HAS to know that, don't they?), could do themselves a HUGE favor by paying SOME attention to what the few fans they have left are saying, no?
I'll finish by saying ... again .... Please, please, please, please, please surprise me tonight. PLEASE.
Please, dear God, don't do this, Grizz.
Beggin' ya.
Hasheem Thabeet being drafted by the Grizz will not sell a single additional season ticket.
Suck it up Heisley, take on Baron's contract and figure it all out later. Move up for Griffin - damned the consequences...
Sacramento deciding not to opt for Rubio, according to Yahoo...
Perhaps all the Rubio fans should askthemselves, why Sacramento, the team who desperately need a PG and have had the closest look at Rubio, do not feel confident drafting him at 4...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-d…
Marc Gasol is my favorite Grizz player, for the reasons that you mentioned, Chris. I hope that he is a mainstay on the team for a long time. That has been my primary concern. The way that Marc banged with Shaq in the middle last year was fantastic. Evidently, Coach Hollins thinks that Marc can play some 4, but I have difficulty seeing it. However, even if Marc and Thabeet don’t mesh well on the court, I understand that improving the defense and adding another presence in the middle is good thing, even with Marc around. Players with the wingspan and apparent athleticism of Thabeet are rare.
I love Rubio – I really enjoyed watching Pistol Pete Maravich and John Stockton – two players, with whom he has some similarities. However, I love Mike Conley, perhaps, to some extent, because of what he been through in Memphis. He is the consummate team player, too. And when given the opportunity, he rose to the occasion. We have a good point guard, who, I think, will get better.
I guess, I hope for a trade. I am enamored with Kevin Love, as rebounder, passer, shooter, and leader.
Chris - not that I think this is what Heisley & Co. are doing, but I'm still hoping this is their strategy:
They may know that Thabeet's value is higher with Minny than Rubio's. So play up Thabeet enough that Minny has to throw #6 and Love in. After all, they want a PG, SG, and C. They don't prefer to have Jefferson and Love play together - they're both PFs really.
If they have #2 and #5 they could possibly get their PG pick of Rubio/Evans/Curry along with Thabeet. One of their other picks could yield a SG.
We would get Love and either Evans or Curry possibly.
Like I said, I don't necessarily believe that's what we're doing, but a guy can dream, can't he?
Stevie Grizz, I also believe the Grizzlies are going to draft Thabeet because they think they could get more for him than for Rubio. Just consider Rubio's still unclear buyout, his falling out with Sacramento etc.
With the Shaq trade it looks like the Suns may be looking to move Amare. How about Rudy and the #2 for Amare and the #14??? Just not Thabeet!
You could probably work in something with Houston as the third team throwing around Barbosa too but I think Houston is gagging for Amare so that would be no good :(
I am not 100% sure you would have to include Rudy in that trade. I am sure Phoenix would ask for that, but after seeing what they took for Shaq... I think they are in cost-cutting/re-building mode. The Grizz could offer all their picks in this draft and Darrell Arthur and maybe Darko's expiring contract. That might be enough to get Amare at this point. I know it doesn't sound like enough, but look at the pile of garbage they took for Shaq. That makes the Pau trade look like a great deal. I say low-ball them and see just how bad they want to off-load his contract.
Now I am just dreaming at this point. Don't take this too literal but I was thinking about a 3 way trade with Houston and Phoenix.
Memphis would get Amare and #14
Houston would get Barbosa and #2
Phoenix would get McGrady (bad contract heh), Rudy Gay, and Darrell Arthur.
Throw in players to make it work out money wise for the most part.
See this is what happens when I have too much time at work
FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING HOLY, PLEASE DON'T TAKE THABEET!
Sorry, had to get that out of my system.
Take Rubio to force his and some team's hands, and then trade him before draft night is done for a veteran player and a high draft pick.
To win consistently your 4 or 5 must have enough offense to warrant a double team. We need one of those pieces. I don't care how it gets done. But Thabeet will never be that guy. MGasol could, but he has a way to go. Do you ever hear of the really big centers making vast improvement??? Chris covered the top pick busts and etc. I want to know of a late pick 7 footer who surprised...........Also I hear the Vikings offered Willie and Favre 1 year deals.
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