Monday, July 6, 2009
Randolph: Reasons it Might Work
Posted by Chris Herrington on Mon, Jul 6, 2009 at 10:00 AM
I'm on record as being opposed to the Grizzlies impending trade for Zach Randolph, and I'm not backing off that: I think his track record makes him too big of a gamble for a young team; I think his black-hole offense makes him a bad fit for a team trying to develop O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay as primary scorers; and I think his stationary defense will present match-up problems against the more mobile fours that are becoming the norm for the position.
Beyond that, a couple of other factors about the deal bother me: I think the Grizzlies gave up too early on a free-agent market that could start looking more and more like a buyer's market as options dwindle. And I hate that the Clippers were able to hold out for a better deal (Quentin Richardson rather than Marko Jaric) for a player they had to get rid of and apparently no one else wanted.
All that said, I don't want my skepticism to be mistaken for the arrogance of certainty. There are reasons to believe this deal might work out for the Grizzlies. Here are six of them:
1. Creeping Maturity?: Last week on The Geoff and Gary Show, Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski suggested that Randolph has matured. Could it be? Though Randolph's on- and off-court rap sheet is long and colorful, most of it, including the most serious entries, happened earlier in his career while he was in Portland. True, Randolph's Clipper tenure was marred by both a DUI arrest and a suspension for punching Suns' forward Louis Amundsen. But the frequency and severity of his problems seems to have waned since leaving Portland. Hopefully the trend will continue.
2. The Lone Knucklehead Theory: Randolph may have a checkered history, but it's not like he's been the only questionable character on the teams for whom he's played. The infamous "Jail Blazers" teams in Portland contained perhaps the biggest concentration of sketchy characters in league history (Darius Miles, Ruben Patterson, Bonzi Wells, Rasheed Wallace, Qyntel Woods, Jeff McInnis). The 2007-2008 Knicks weren't plagued by the array of legal problems that afflicted the Jail Blazers, but was in its own way a historic assemblage of dubious on-court personalities (Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Jerome James) led by an equally troubled coach (Isaiah Thomas). Similarly, the 2008-2009 Clippers were a doomed-to-failure collection of underachievers, malcontents, and crazies (Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Ricky Davis, Al Thornton).
An oft-repeated NBA aphorism is that you can get by with one knucklehead on your team, but if you have multiple ones they'll feed off each other. (Witness the combustion that occurred with the Grizzlies paired Jason Williams and Bonzi Wells.) Randolph may be a knucklehead, but he's had the misfortune of playing on the most knucklehead-saturated team in the league probably every season of his career.
The Grizzlies are very young, but this team seems to be a very stable collection of people. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are top-notch. There are questions about Rudy Gay's game, but he's a solid guy. O.J. Mayo has some minor baggage based on his rocky negotiation of the corrupt farce that is college basketball, but has been all business since entering the Association. All the rookies seem like high-character guys. If Randolph really is the follower some claim him to be, then he might be okay with the Griz.
3. Damon Stoudamire: As previously noted, Stoudamire, who is currently a Grizzlies assistant, played with Randolph early in his career at Portland. Presumably, Stoudamire knows him well and is more likely to have his respect than anyone else in the locker room. If he's able to help keep Randolph in line, Stoudamire could play an unusually important role for the Grizzlies this season.
4. The Looming Contract Year: Randolph has two years left on his current max contract. If he plays well in Memphis and the Grizzlies have some success, it will go a long way toward rehabilitating his image and putting him in position to get at least one more major contract. But if Randolph has on or off-court problems in Memphis and the team tanks, who is going to want to sign him when this contract is up? Randolph wouldn't be the first talented, productive player to have his NBA career cut artificially short because teams didn't want to deal with his baggage. It happened to Isaiah Rider and Bonzi Wells, and could be happening to Allen Iverson right now. Randolph could have tens of millions on the line these next couple of seasons.
5. Frontcourt Partners: Randolph demands a lot of shots and doesn't play much defense. Thankfully the Grizzlies will employ a center tandem next season that might fit with Randolph pretty well. If Hasheem Thabeet is what the Grizzlies think he is, he'll be able to cover for a lot of defensive lapses and certainly won't demand many halfcourt touches.
Marc Gasol is not quite the defensive dynamo Thabeet is expected to be, but he's tough, attentive, and is both willing and capable of being a secondary option offensively who can facilitate shots for others. Like Randolph, he can play both on the block and on the perimeter, so the team should be able to use them together effectively.
For a sense of what the right kind of frontcourt partner can do for Randolph, just look at his last two seasons. In New York during the 07-08 season, he was forced into a poor fit alongside fellow beefy low-post scorer Eddy Curry. This resulted in one of the two worst seasons Randolph's had since becoming a starter (18/10, 46% shooting — still pretty good production).
Last season with the Clippers, the idea was to pair Randolph with Marcus Camby, a defensive-oriented center who doesn't need plays run for him on the offensive end. Given that the Clippers finished 19-63, the third-worst record in the league, you might assume this combo was a failure. But really the problem wasn't that Randolph and Camby didn't play well together, it was that they didn't play enough together: Due to injuries the duo played only 16 games in which both got at least 30 minutes.
For the season, Randolph played 39 games for the Clippers. In those games, he averaged 21 points and 9 rebounds and the team went 13-26 (.333 winning percentage). But in the 16 games in which he and Camby got significant minutes together, Randolph averaged 26 and 11. More importantly, the team went 8-8. This suggests that if you can pair Randolph with a frontcourt partner that doesn't demand too many shots and can cover for him defensively, it can be good for Randolph and for the team.
6. The 2010 Draft: Although I certainly think that David Lee, Paul Millsap, and Charlie Villanueva — the power forwards the team could have conceivably acquired in free agency this summer — would all have been better long-term fits for this team than Randolph, you can certainly argue that none of them are perfect fits and none of them seem to really have perennial all-star ability.
Signing them this summer for what would have likely been five-year deals would have locked up the team's power forward slot with good but imperfect and relatively low-upside solutions. Randolph's two-year deal keeps the options open.
Which leads to the 2010 draft, which is expected to be deep, especially at the power forward slot. Draft Express' current 2010 mock has 6-8 power forwards projected in the lottery. NBADraft.net's mock has 6-7 PFs in the lottery. Chad Ford's prospect list for 2010 has 6-7 PFs in the lottery range.
Even if the Grizzlies are picking in the back half of the lottery next summer, they could easily snag their power forward of the future, and would be in good position to trade up for a higher-level prospect. (Perhaps using a potentially expendable Marc Gasol if Thabeet pans out.) In this scenario, the Grizzlies' PFOTF would be able to ease into the league playing behind Randolph for a year before taking over the starting role in his second season.
Comments (22)
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Perhaps, the Grizz are considering it an experiment, with a duration of one year. Then, if things don't work out, they can unload him in the last year of his two year contract. On the other hand, sometimes these questionable characters do seem to work out for teams and their fans. Examples include Latrell Sprewell in New York and Dennis Rodman in Chicago.
we don!t need players that wear g-strings we need players that wear jock straps every moved the grizzlies make the local and national media disagree with the organization so they might as well get players that are a little controversial instead of continue to get players that are a safe bet the hello with that if the grizzlies are going to get scrutinized might as well make it worth it wer tried choir boys boys scout and soft players that didnt work might as well try something different the players you want are safe not better players period
the organization will be scrutinized by the local and national regardless of what they do so they might as well get players that are a little controversial and wear jock straps than the same ol players that wear g-strings choir boys boys scout and jelly backs and keep getting the same results losses look at pau same type player everybody is crying about getting ran him out town so whom ever we get that is what we deserve cant blame nobody but the same ol people that are crying and hollowing foul what both ways doesn!t work that way grizzlies please make the tough decision and the hello on how the media think and feel that is the problem now go iverson or whomever controversial these same people will be the same people that will follow randolph and iverson all season good bad or indifferent to report and want interviews this what sales and drives the media controversy
Ha ha ha ha....
Let's see who the Grizz have at one time or another signed from that "famous" Jail Blazers team:
Damon Stoudamire
Bonzi Wells
Darius Miles
Zach Randolph
The Grizz take all these malcontents and at the end of the day when you know you're getting a guy who's trouble and you let him move into your neighborhoods... at the end of the day you care more about hoops than your community's safety.
That was a good compilation of reasons why the Z-Dirt experiment could work. I would also submit that since the Grizz have few good outside shooters, passing out of the post is less of a necessity as it could be on other teams. Our guards and wings are drivers who now have a finisher they can lay it off to.
Unconnected to this, rudy in a contract year. If he doesnt slap up a 22/7/4/1.2/1.2 in the first 3 months, he never will. Also, don't you think its a mistake to get his extension done until after the season begins.
@Matt H
Rookie contract extensions must be signed by October 31st or the player officially becomes a restricted free agent the following off-season (assuming you tender their qualifying offer).
GrizzlieGM is correct.
Assuming its a reasonable number, I'd like to get an extension done on Rudy this summer. Adding Randolph to the mix already puts some pressure on the shot distribution. Having Rudy potentially pressing for shots during a contract year could be a recipe for trouble.
Chris,
Is it realistic to believe that Rudy would be amenable to a deal like 6yrs/ $65mil?
scheduled payout:
2010: $8.5
2011: $9.4
2012: $10.3
2013: $11.2
2014: $12.0
2015: $13.0
or do you think he is looking for $70+mil deal???
I think the above is reasonable. It is along the same lines as what Deng got... and to be honest I would rather have a healthy Deng than Gay.
I think that would be the very upper end of what I would be comfortable giving Gay.
Given the rough time restricted free agents are having this summer, the looming salary-cap contraction, and the unknown of a new CBA to be negotiated, I think it makes a lot of sense of players in Gay's draft class to get decent extensions on the books this summer, but also reduces their leverage.
At least, you would think that would be the case.
I'd be reluctant to go over a $10 million a year average on the contract.
Rudy will likely end up with a contract in the range of what Danny Granger was extended for.
I generally agree with Chris about Rudy but think that $10 million is a bit much, especially when all he does is basically score points. He doesn't rebound well for his size, doesn't pass and doesn't play defense. He is, at best, a third option on a good team and that isn't worth $10 million.
With the salary cap numbers now officially released and moving down from last year, the Grizz are in a very strong place financially.
2008 cap numbers(all listed in millions)
$58.68 cap
$71.15 lux tax
$44.01 minimum
$5.585 Mid-Level Exception
2009 cap numbers
$57.7 cap
$69.92 lux tax
$43.275 minimum
$5.854 Mid-Level Exception
Those players that accepted the MLE are signing 5 year $34mil deals.
As of today(after the Randolph trade) with Warrick's cap hold and Buckner still under contract, the Grizzlies' salary cap sits at $53,315,079*.
After renouncing Warrick and executing the early termination option on Buckner, the Grizz cap number will be $47,274,723*.
$10.5 million under the cap to either sign legitimate FAs, or the more likely scenarios:
1) The Grizz will help facilitate trades for teams in the luxury tax already.
2) The Grizz will trade a heavily protected 2nd rd pick for a vet PG and ca$h.
3) I also think the Grizz will sign either Marcus Williams or Jeff Adrien to their respective minimums($855,189 and $457,588)
*This assumes signing the draft picks as follows:
Thabeet $4,458,840 (120% of scale)
Carroll $1,009,680 (120% of scale)
Young $457,588 (league minimum)
Tyler Hansborough has 40 points and 9 rebounds in 2 nights at the summer league and he is a standup guy. I am afraid with the need we had (and may still have) at PF the Grizz may regret passing on trading down to get him. I wanted that guy on our team!
I was unaware of that signing date for RFA's. I really hate the situation we are in with Rudy. Can we sign him for less than 10m a year? I think 9m avg is the max that he is worth. I would like him so much more, if his stats were 15/8/2.5 assists/1.5 steals/1.2 blocks or some other poor man's version of shawn marion.
With the memo from the league office stating that the 2010-2011 salary cap will most likely be between $50.4 million and $53.6 million could send extensions into a tailspin. I would expect Rudy to sign an extension starting around $8mil/year.
ESPN reporting we're part of a four-way deal with Raps, Mavs ... ? Chris - know anything more? Will this move see us taking on a player, or is it just shuffling dollars around, and shuttering Stackhouse as a courtesy to the Raps? What's in it for us? Thoughts?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?i…
Either Buckner has to be going out in this deal, or Warrick will have to be renounced and Buckner bought out before this deal can be consummated.
Edit to my comment... We can take Stackhouse without sending out any salary since the Randolph deal is not official, the Grizz still have $11mil in cap room even with Warrick's hold and Buckner's full salary.
Grizzle GM --
I'm a little unclear on Buckner's buyout.
What is the actual cash dollar amount?
What is the cap amount for his contract after the buyout?
Also, would Stackhouse's cap hold after the buyout be the amt of the buyout ($2 million)?
Earl Barron averaged like 20-10-5 in the summer leagues when he was first picked up for Miami. I think Tyler will be a decent NBA player, but summer league stats really only mean something when your good prospects go there is suck it up completely.
All the talk about Randolph is almost becoming weary. At first everybody was mocking the 3YP saying, "we need to add talent"; youth won't win in the NBA. Now that we are actually adding BASKETBALL talent, there is this huge negative fallout in Memphis. It seems like there are far fewer Clippers fans happy about Randolph's leaving than there are Memphis fans unhappy about his coming. I don't understand why. Thanks for this article, Chris, which at least sheds some objective light on the discussion.
There is all this talk about how we "passed up" on Lee, the career 11 points and 9 rebounds guy who wanted $10 million a year because of his SSOL inflated 16 and 12 last year, and the dude has only just finished his 3rd year. He is nowhere close to being an "established player" and a suspect that he will underwhelm for whatever team he plays for this year.
I also suspect that Randolph will "ruin" the Grizzlies just like Darius Miles did. I can't understand the love for Amar'e and his baggage, but the adverse response to Zach and his.
Amar'e was 21.4-8-2 this year; 53% FG on 14 SPG; 2.8 AST, 2.0 TO's
Zach 20.8-10-2 this year; 49% on 17 SPG; 2.3 AST, 2.3 TO's
Clearly, yes, Amar'e is better, but there is not a HUGE gap in their consistency on the court. Yet, people seriously argued that we SHOULD have traded Rudy (Conley and Hak) for Amar'e and his non-existent defense, but some of those same people are seizing and foaming at the mouth in objection to trading DARKO MILICIC for Randolph and his lack of defense!
It was Darko Milicic! We still have a TON of cap space!
We are not tied up with a long term contract! Am I missing something?
There is no "chemistry" on a 24 win team that has been coached with consistency for only 4 months and has only had consistent starters at TWO slots (SG and SF) for the year (with some people ready start riots because they think OJ should start at PG).
I guess that I should have a perspective on things if we have a fan base contingent who whines bitterly at Conley's 15-5-4 production in his first 4 months of consistent starting while playing with a rookie SG and Center and no PF to speak of.
Even if this move fails horribly, there is no way that any of the potential negatives even approach the positives with this trade. My head is spinning about such a bad response to a great talent upgrade, ESPECIALLY in the fact of how well D. Miles worked out.
Are they selling All Star PF's at WALMART with a 100% satisfaction guarantee return policy and I missed the sale paper or something?
Again, thanks for the article, Chris.
Maybe I should stop getting so riled up over timbre of some of the CA comments.
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