TennCare funding could decrease by up to $8.5 billion as a result of Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s budget reconciliation law.
KFF, a nonprofit health policy organization, released a report projecting the impact of healthcare cuts from Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” The group found that TennCare funding could be cut between $5 to $8.5 billion over the next decade.
As of June 2025, there are 1,414,000 Tennesseans enrolled in TennCare with a large portion of participants being under the age of 18 (840,000). Shelby County has a total of 241,934 residents enrolled.
“TennCare covers approximately 20 percent of the state’s population, 50 percent of the state’s births, and 50 percent of the state’s children,” state officials said.
The impact of Trump’s bill on those relying on TennCare has been highlighted by critics of the decision.
Sen. London Lamar (D-Memphis) called it a “roadmap to devastation for working families in Tennessee and across America.”
“This Trump budget eliminates jobs, drives up energy costs, and leaves more Tennesseans sick, hungry, and without health coverage,” Lamar said.
Rep. John Ray Clemmons (D-Nashville) said the bill only aids the “superwealthy.”
“Increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, slashing Medicaid for possibly 300,000 Tennesseans, raising insurance premiums, gutting child-care for working families, and cutting thousands of jobs threatens everyone and benefits no one,” Clemmons said.
KFF referenced the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO)’s latest cost estimate, which showed that the policy would negatively impact Medicaid spending over the next 10 years by an estimated $911 billion. It will also increase the number of uninsured people in the country by 10 million.
Prior to the analysis, KFF estimated the amount of uninsured Tennesseans to increase between 210,000.
“About 45,000 people will lose TennCare coverage due to Medicaid rule changes, while 240,000 will lose access to affordable coverage because the Trump bill also eliminates premium tax credits for many plans sold through Healthcare.gov, the Affordable Care Act marketplace,” the Tennessee Democratic Caucus said.
Information from the United States Census Bureau shows that Tennessee has one of the highest percentages of uninsured people in the country at 9.3 percent.