Friday, June 26, 2009
Draft Post-Mortem: Quick Thoughts
Posted by Chris Herrington on Fri, Jun 26, 2009 at 9:50 AM
I'll have a report from this afternoon's press conference later and will probably wait until this weekend to deal with the aftermath of the draft in War and Peace form, but for now some quick thoughts:
1. Hasheem Thabeet: I'd voiced my opposition to the Thabeet pick here, but clearly my "value" objection was not, um, valid. Last night's draft made it clear that the #2 pick, and the rights to Ricky Rubio, did not have the trade value that many assumed (or maybe hoped). Sacramento clearly wasn't going to offer a significant package to get Rubio at 2 when they weren't even going to take him at 4. The Knicks never had a compelling package to offer. As for Minnesota, there were some reports yesterday that Hasheem Thabeet was their target at #2, but if it was Rubio they were clearly right in not making a significant offer to move up. They got him at #5 anyway.
Via a combination of his legal issues in Spain and taking a closer look at his game, the shine clearly came off Rubio in the run-up to the draft. Did teams like Memphis, Oklahoma City, and Sacramento make a big mistake in passing up Rubio? Time will tell.
My other objections to the Thabeet pick are interrelated: There's a long history of teams making a mistake by reaching for size high in the draft. Taking out the few centers considered obvious franchise players (Shaq, Yao), the bust-to-star ratio is something like three-to-one. And I especially didn't like the Grizzlies taking the risk when center was not a position of need with Marc Gasol already in place.
That said, the pick is understandable: I think Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, and even James Harden are safer bets to be good pros, but I'm not completely sold on any of them. Given the Grizzlies defensive problems and the lack of a clear-cut alternative, I can see why they did it. But it wouldn't have been my pick.
2. Demarre Carroll/Sam Young: I didn't like the Carroll pick because, in addition to Young, who ended up falling to #36, I liked Derrick Brown from Xavier better (and Wayne Ellington and Dajuan Blair, for that matter). Brown and Carroll are similar as 6'8" defenders and both worked out for the team. But I thought Brown would have been a better bet because he's a superior pure athlete and seems to have more potential as an outside shooter. It was explained to me that Carroll got the nod because his surefire energy and toughness was deemed more important than what was considered Brown's marginal upside advantage. The Grizzlies apparently think Carroll can defend the 2, 3, and 4.
Young was almost the pick at #27 and the team was thrilled to get him at #36. My prediction is that Young has a bigger impact next season than Carroll.
3. The Darko Deal: For all Darko's issues, I'd rather have a rugged, defensive big man than a declining undersized shooter, which is what the Grizzlies got in return in the form of Quentin Richardson. But, once Thabeet was added, the team was looking at Darko as a third-string center. Essentially the team traded a third-string center on a large expiring contract for a second-string wing player on a large, expiring contract. The deal makes sense in terms of balancing the roster.
4. What's Next: I'll get into this more in the coming days, but in my mind this draft still leaves the team with two obvious needs (discounting just "more talent") — an upgrade at starting power forward and more backcourt firepower off the bench. The big question now is how aggressively the team will try to fill these needs via trade or free agency.
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Wouldn't Richardson be considered backcourt firepower off the bench? He's a good shooter.
He's a streaky shooter but he is by no means a good shooter.
"My prediction is that Young has a bigger impact next season than Carroll."
My prediction is that Young has a bigger impact than Thabeet. Both next year, and over the course of their careers. And I am being dead serious. Young was the only decent pick they made last night.
The Griz had a good draft. Fans need to come off their high horse and realize picks are made based on not only talent, but a teams needs. The Griz need a big defensive presence down low that can block shots and rebound. Thabeet will improve rebounding and has decent footwork. He doesn't foul and blocks shots. He will never be great offensively, but can be good. Young was a steal. Carroll's energy is needed, but we may regret passing on Ellington. All-in-all, it was a good night considering the overall weakness of the draft. Griz deserve some credit here.
(*coming off my high horse*).
Man, you're right, the view down here is way better. I see so much more clearly that drafting a center 2nd overall who isn't even as good as the one we already have was a fantastic decision. And we get to pay him more money? Even better. This is how rosters are built, people. You take your 2nd most popular player, and tell him that if he wants to play 30 minutes a night, he needs to learn how to stay in front of players who are way quicker than he is, and who will pull him away from the basket. At least now Rudy, Conley and even OJ have been blessed with an excuse to not play defense. This is a win/win for everyone involved.
My biggest regret is that we passed on Ellington at 18. Mark my words, the grizz WILL regret that!
In word yet as to who the Grizz are bringing in as undrafted FA's? I'd love to see Jeff Adrien and Antonio Anderson (for defense - not Tiger ties) brought in.
I think the Thabeet pick was more about keeping him outta OKC than how he fits our team. Face it, a core of Durant, Westbrook, Green, and Thabeet would have been formidable...
I just wish we would have applied the same principles to keeping Blair outta SA. We still could have taken Young at 27. Carroll better turn out to be really good - better than Blair at least...
And how about the bullseye on Rudy Gay now? QRich, Young and Carroll can all play 3. Anybody smell a Gay/Warrick trade for a decent 4?
Something tells me the Free Agency period is going to be a bigger let down than the draft.
*sigh*
Well said, Matt. I couldn't have responded any better than that. That made me actually laugh out loud at work.
Ummm... QRich is a backup player at best, and more about the money he will save them than the actual play he will provide. Young and Carroll are both players who went late first round/second round in a weak draft. I hope they turn out to be good, but if you think either of them is a replacement for Rudy... you need to stop smoking that stuff.
Of course, after seeing what the Grizz did in this draft... it is entirely possible they might trade Rudy, O.J., and Marc for a bag of magic beans. Come on Mr. Heisley, wouldn't a giant beanstalk attract fans? It would certainly be cheap...
Matt - when was the last time Gasol (Pau or Marc) was a defensive threat? To the casual fan, a comment like yours might go over well. To someone who reads the box scores and realizes how bad the Griz are out rebounded on a nightly basis and how the defense, not offense is the problem, your comment just looks angry and uninformed.
How exactly is QRich going to save the Grizzlies money??? He just cost the team $2 million off of the salary cap room they had available.
jacksonGrizfan, speaking of someone who is only a casual fan...
If you watched the actual games last year that Marc played in, you would know that he actually did a good job defensively against the best centers in the league. He played his best ball against Shaq, Yao, and Dwight Howard.
And as others have already pointed out, this team is in just as bad shape in the offensive statistics as the defensive ones. So, please tell me how a guy like Thabeet, who has zero low-post moves or offensive game, is going to be a better player than Marc Gasol?
Oh, and if you were more than a "casual" observer of college basketball, you would know that Thabeet was only effective defensively against the bottom-dwelling teams. He was exposed and embarrassed by Blair last year and Dorsey the year before. Both of those guys are 7 to 8 inches shorter than him, and were drafted in the second round.
But hey, what do we all know... we are just casual fans...
From what I read earlier, the cash considerations that the Knicks gave as part of that trade were around 3 million dollars. And Richardson was making 1.3 million more than Darko, not 2 million. That is 1.7 million in the bank for the Grizz this season, and his contract expires at the end of the year just like Darko's. It does mean the team loses some of their cap space... but let's be honest here. Who still thinks this team is actually going to USE that cap space? Yeah...
did we trade for QRich to add salary, so we won't be under the minimum if we resign hakim?
I thought about that too, downtowner. That is possible. The Grizz will certainly be flirting with the league minimum if they don't add any more players during the off-season.
live at press conference: Hasheem and Heisley in solidarity with the casual no jacket/tie look.
in an attempt to speak positively about Hasheem:
He did come from Africa to get an education, and ended up getting that from a great University in UConn...i can definitely respect that!
I do want smart guys on my Grizz team.
Thabeet on what he knows about Memphis: "I been in Memphis a couple of times, I know about music city , bbq. It's hotter than Africa."
He sounds like Mutombo, I'll give him that.
JacksonGrizFan, I'm just as bummed about missing on Ellington as you are, but that's no reason to take it out on me.
I'm like you. I just can't wait to see our defense improve when Gasol is forced out on Dirk, Kenyon Martin, his brother, Aldridge, and all the other perimeter 4's of the West. Of course, he will probably be demanding a trade by then because he's only playing 15 MPG at his true position, but we have to get minutes to "develop" our starting Center of the future. Gasol is 23, and thus too old for our organization. I mean, we draft rookies that are older than he is, so obvioiusly he just doesn't fit in with our plans.
And how dare you call me a "casual fan." I am at the very least, a "semi-casual" bordering on "business casual" fan.
Besides, I've already been happy with the Thabeet era. I now know that Memphis is hotter than Africa.
Well. We didn't go from worst to first. But after a few hours I have settled down and now feel pretty good. I just read a long article about why Griffin should run from the Clippers. If I list who the Grizzlies have on their roster. It doesn't sound that bad. There are a lot of ins and outs and what have yas. But I say we don't do anything drastic and go over achieve. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story…
It's not the heat, it's the humidity
MisterT80, let me be clear... I don't dislike Thabeet as a person, just as a professional basketball player on my team. His story is certainly inspiring. Making his way from Africa to the second pick in the draft is an amazing journey.
But... what he brings (and more important, doesn't bring) to the Grizzlies as a ball player is the problem. Nothing would make me happier than for him to make me eat my words. I would love to have his supporters on here at the end of next season gloating because he is ROTY and the best center to hit the league since Shaq. But I have exactly zero faith that any of that will happen.
Okay. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt...Maybe Thabeet was the best (or at least the safest) player for the Grizzlies to take with the #2 pick. And maybe DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young will quickly develop into relatively decent second-string players.
Still, even if given the benefit of the doubt, does anyone seriously believe that the Grizzlies will be anything more than marginally better this upcoming season than they were this past season? Does anyone seriously believe that the team will win more than 30 games this upcoming season unless they acquire at least one free agent who clearly belongs in the starting lineup?
I certainly don't. Therefore, I'm terribly disappointed and unexcited about the outlook for the Grizzlies, perhaps more so than at any point since the team has been in Memphis. I'm not sure whether the city can endure yet another dismal losing season.
Side note: ESPN Chad Ford gives the Grizz an A- draft grade.
i hear ya Adam...
... was just trying to talk myself into something positive out of the draft. Thabeet seems like an upstanding guy, might do some really good things in the community, Memphis could use that as well. and I'm pretty sure he won't be getting caught with marijuana anytime soon.
none of that has anything to do with BBall skills...nice guys finish last, ey?
Agreed Adam. Young was the best pick and why they passed on Blair at 27 was insane when he could have been the PF they needed. They made the big mistake of not taking one of those point guards or Harden. If Conley doesn't have a great season next year they will look really stupid passing on Evans, Curry of Rubio.
Ronald Tillery has a new post on the Memphis Edge about trades that didn't go through.
Here's something that just killed me: Miami offered Beasley for #2 and Chalmers for #27. Why the hell do we still have Thabeet and Carroll again? Who in the right mind would decline a deal like that. It gives us our PF of the future and a GREAT backup PG. *sigh* Only in Memphis.
Regarding Darko and "I'd rather have a rugged, defensive big man" - this was the problem with Darko - he was not contributing in this capacity, in fact, he preferred NOT to be known for his defense, and wanted to focus on the offensive end, remember? He didn't want to be here and he will fit in much better in SSOL in NY.
I'd ask myself why is Riley trading Beasley? Giving up on him pretty quick, no? I assume it was for Thabeet, so that makes me feel a little better about the pick...
And Grizzly Adam, I wasn't saying that Carroll, Qrich, or Young could "replace" Rudy Gay, per se. Although Young might have the best shot. I am saying that Rudy better bring it this season. He's the softest player on the team, and if we're getting serious about toughening up then he's gotta get tough, too. I just think management sent a not-so-subtle message that if he wants to get paid, he better perform...
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