Thursday, October 29, 2009
Thinking About Mike Conley
Posted by Chris Herrington on Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 4:09 PM
- Larry Kuzniewski
- The jury's still out on Mike Conley's upside and fit.
Two years and one game into his NBA career, Conley's outside shooting is ahead of schedule, but there are a couple of other aspects of his game that have lowered my initial expectations. One is his athleticism and the other is how he uses it.
Conley is certainly a good enough athlete to be a quality starting point guard, especially if his shooting progress continues, but he's not as electric as he seemed coming out of Ohio State. He now looks like a good athlete for his position, not a great one, and this limits his upside.
The other problem has been Conley's timidity. While not quite the athlete I first thought he was, Conley still has the quickness and handle to put a lot of pressure on defenses. But he doesn't do this nearly often enough. Conley should be breaking down defenses in the halfcourt and streaking past defenders in transition with at least some regularity, but these explosions have been too rare. If Conley can begin to use his speed more, he can still be a high-quality starting point guard. If he doesn't, then it's not going to happen.
All of that is a question of how good Conley can be. How good of a fit he can be with this particular team is a separate question and one the current roster and coaching perspective makes difficult to evaluate. As should be clear to anyone, this team's backcourt needs to be built around O.J. Mayo, which requires first figuring out what Mayo is going to be. And while I've become more skeptical about the idea of Mayo developing into a point guard (though such a move would certainly help him on the defensive end), I think the team hasn't done enough to make that determination. Now, they have a coach who seems to have ruled out the possibility and a guard rotation (with Conley, Allen Iverson, and Marcus Williams) in which Mayo is the only player who can really play off the ball, making it very difficult to get him minutes on the ball.
Despite legitimate doubts about Conley's upside and fit, the shrill reactions to his poor performance in last night's opener are a little much, an example of detractors somehow choosing to consider one game a more meaningful sample than Conley's three months of quality production last season after the coaching change.
As a reminder, here are Conley's month-by-month stats in the second half of last season:
Mike Conley Month-by-Month (Points/Assists/Rebounds/Steals — FG%/3P%)
February: 14.5-6.2-4.8-1.4 43/34
March: 13.9-5.1-3.5-1.1 45/41
April: 15.6-5.8-3.7-2.4 50/47
That's not all-star production or anything, but it's very good for a second-year point guard. And it was consistent. Over those 36 games (discounting the one where he left early to injury), Conley scored in single digits only four times. While Conley's production to start this season certainly bears close scrutiny, a 36-game sample is more meaningful than a single game.
Comments (9)
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apologies for belaboring the point, and i do appreciate you putting yourself out there.
however, in my view, it's not about shrill reactions after one game. most people are objecting to the ai off the bench theory when referencing conley. whether conley can be a productive player is not in question. he certainly is a talented youngster. it just seems obvious to most people that at this point he is not ready to be starting over a hall of famer, if indeed the debate is really about conley/ai at all. you point to a 36-game sample after his main competitor for minutes (kyle lowry) was traded. how does this 36-game sample compare to a hall-of-fame career? it just doesn't. in ai's worst season in an awful situation, his numbers are still better than conley's small 36 game sample where conley was at his best. further, it's one thing if you're suggesting that one game where a guy scores a lot of points where he is not game planned for is not that meaningful. it's an entirely different thing when said player is not game planned for, plays 32 minutes with the ball in his hands and puts up an ineffectual 3 and 3, and is still being promoted by writers as a better option to start than a hall of famer, who was signed to bring wins and to convince people to buy tix. maybe pairing ai with a true point makes sense, but i have not seen that argument presented. regardless, you must realize that the pairing of combo guards in ai and mayo is what excites most people.
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Isn't there a case to be made that Griz stats past the all star break for the last 3 years should be taken with a grain of salt? The season has been over by Jan or Feb the last 3 years.
3 years ago we suck so bad by Dec, Frat is canned and Barone is installed....season over early
2 years ago we suck so bad by Jan, Pau is traded......season over early
1 year ago we suck so bad by Jan, Ivy is fired......season over early
I still WANT to believe that Kinsey's rookie of the month, month was legit....that it meant he was a promising young player that could keep his head above water in the nba and be a contributor on the wing.......he's in Turkey now.....
In a sense, this argument parallels why fans and pundits put extra emphasis on performances in the playoffs.....when the game means more.....when there is more on the line.....the performance is more meaningful......
So far in the NBA, the more meaningful the situation, the worse Mike Conley plays.
Trade away all Conley's competition for minutes.....put him on a team 20 games out of the playoffs....give him a brand new coach with built in excuses for being bad.....play Conley with a team that has half checked out mentally and against teams overlooking the bottom dweller Griz......
and Mike Conley will shine.....
What I've written about Allen Iverson's best role on this — or any other — team (which, incidentally, is not what this post is about) has nothing to do with the question of whether Conley is better than Iverson or Iverson is better than Conley. Iverson was better than Conley last season, in Iverson's worst year. At some point, as Iverson declines and approaches retirement, that will change, though I have no reason to believe it will change this season.
This question of roles is about what's best for the team. If Iverson starts, the team will have its five best scorers competing for shots and little to no scoring coming off the bench. Bringing Iverson off the bench allows the team to better distribute scoring options across the game and hopefully keep games from getting away as soon as the bench starts coming in. Perhaps if the Grizzlies had kept Hakim Warrick around to give the bench another viable scorer, the calculus on this would look a little different. And, as I have said, coming off the bench does not preclude Iverson from playing more minutes than some starters (i.e. Conley) or finishing games. I think the rotation would have a better flow and the team would be better off. There are other players who clearly "deserve to start" who play a similar role for their teams: Ginobili, Ben Gordon, Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa, etc.
I say all this based on the assumption that Conley will pick up where he left off last season and continue to improve (in efficiency if not raw production). If that isn't the case, and we look up in five to 10 games and he's averaging 3 points, 3 assists and 25% shooting then obviously that changes everything. But I see no reason for that to be the case.
actually, i guess i have seen this argument before. and while I appreciate the sincerity of it, i just don't buy it...at all. this team lost lots of games last year for a reason, and it wasn't just being young. this team needs an engine and leader on the floor. they were ranked last or near last in the league in offense and assists last year. that is pretty indicative of the fact they were both having trouble scoring and having trouble with the way they were doing it, despite solid scoring avgs for gay and mayo. i think there is a big difference between being able to create a shot for yourself and being able to fundamentally break down a defense (and that's not a knock on isolation offense). without ai on the floor, you just have finishers or guys that can do just enough to create space to score themselves, but not the wide open shots you get with a player that is getting into the lane every time down the floor. ai has been double and triple teamed his entire career not merely for his scoring prowess, but for his ability to fundamentally break down a defense, force fouls, score, and create wide-open shots for teammates.
Everyone here makes good points. But I think Herrington is right. Iverson coming off the bench is essential for balance on this team. You cant have 5 scorers as starters and no scorers coming off the bench. You just cant have that. It doesnt mean Iverson wont be playing major minutes or that he wont be out there during crunch time. I sincerely hope and believe he actually will be. The problem is, and I believe this wholeheartedly, Conley is not tough enough to be a point guard in this league. Some guys have the will and drive. In the 2 and some seasons that I've seen conley play, he does not deserve to start. Period, end of story. Granted, point guards some times take longer to develop, but if I were to make a prediction, he won't develop much farther than what he is now.
Chris just be prepared to admit to Vernon that this team can not and will not win at a high level with Conley as the starting point guard and with OJ being outmatched pretty much every night on the defensive end when he plays the two. I mean even when his bigger than the SG he is guarding he is then outmatched speed wise (ie Ben Gordon)
All the consternation about Conley's performance? What in the world? I assume you're saving the post about OJ Mayo until after he puts up another dreadful night from the field against Toronto? Mike Conley wasn't great in the opener, but come on, there's a story brewing here that's much bigger than the continued, tired conversation about Mike Conley.
What is most notable about last night is that the regular season has started, the games have started to count, and OJ Mayo didn't pull out of his slump when we needed him. In fact, he was the main culprit, in large part, of the incredibly lopsided way in which the Grizzlies backcourt was dominated by the Pistons backcourt. Also, did noone notice that apparently Mayo left the gym immediately after the game and wasn't available to reporters? This guy is struggling mightily and I think he knows it. I think everyone knows it, Hollins, AI, everyone. Not to blow anything out of proportion - just saying this story is alot bigger than whatever controvery there is about Conley.
Add opening night's performance to Mayo's preseason performances and what you've got is a guy whose main strength on the basketball court is his jumpshot shooting 33% from the field and 22% from three. But he wasn't just missing jumpshots. He blew two layups early on that I'm not even sure drew iron. He couldn't seem to get a pass off without it being deflected. He couldn't keep his dribble and looked out of control the entire game. It was a mortifying performance by a guy who is supposed to be one of the brightest spots for a struggling franchise. In my opinion, of all the drama that has been pre-hyped by the media and everyone, there isn't an issue that bears more close attention being paid than OJ Mayo's current struggles.
@ Herodotus
But the only difference is that OJ proved over a whole season that he is an NBA player. Many people still dont believe that Conley is a legit NBA starting point guard and he didnt do anything in the preseason or the first game to make people think otherwise. And its more that Conley has never really shown any aggression or fire and that's one of those things that really cant be taught or changed. OJ not being available for interviews almost shows the opposite b/c that means he was most likely really upset about his performance. Where as Conley and Thabeet were probably out getting milk shakes once they updated their twitter message.
@Timmy_D
My point is, all of this Conley controversy is pre-packaged. No matter what, people were going to be calling for Conley's head this season, wanting to see A.I. start over him. All it was going to take was one bad game for a significant portion of the fan base to scream bloody murder. We all knew this was coming. Conley isn't any better or worse than he was the last three weeks or at the end of the season last year. At the point guard position, we're the same as we always were, with a little controversy over who should be starting. But OJ Mayo being this ineffective? That is a significant, unforeseen development. And I beg to differ on what exactly OJ Mayo proved last year and its relevance to now. Right now, OJ Mayo is on a nine game slump. That's about 1/10 of an entire season, including preseason and the regular season. With OJ Mayo playing this poorly, we're not going to be anywhere near the team people hope we can be. And with this team being so fragile, OJ Mayo getting off to a devastatingly bad start to the season is a frightful thought. We've got an improved Toronto team tonight at home, followed by a five game road trip, Portland at home, and two more road games. If OJ plays this badly for the next ten or eleven days, the season could be over before it even really begins, no matter what Mike Conley and Allen Iverson are doing.
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