Monday, August 2, 2010
Herenton Presents Own Data, Suggesting Lopsided Victory for Himself
Posted by Jackson Baker on Mon, Aug 2, 2010 at 7:01 PM
- JB
- Herenton with his data sheets
The Willie Herenton who met with the media on Monday, with three more days to go before the 9th District Democratic primary is decided, was not the provocative, chip-on-shoulder politician they’ve seen in this election year but a calmly argumentative professional.
The former school superintendent and mayor said he had called the press conference to correct what he said were “erroneous” perceptions of the status of his contest with incumbent congressman Steve Cohen. He put the blame for such public misperception as might exist on the media — “in particular, the printed media” — for focusing on countywide early-voting data instead of patterns within the 9th District “subset.”
Herenton declared bluntly, “Since I am so distrustful of the printed media, I would have to conclude that this was not inadvertently done but was seriously contemplated by the media. “ The print media “with the aid of a biased poll, in my opinion, has tried very hard to persuade the public that Herenton is behind and Cohen is well ahead.”
(The former mayor did not specify which poll he meant — whether it was one by John Bakke with the Ethridge polling firm or another by pollster Berje Yacoubian.)
The reality, Herenton said, was “that Cohen is trailing at least with a 3-to-1 margin — especially in our highest and best performing black precincts.” He presented tables designed to show a large and preponderantly African-American turnout at specific box locations. (The conclusions and data are apparently the ones he alluded to in a fiery weekend speech in North Memphis.)
A key part of Herenton’s case was that the 8,838 early voters reported in Election Commission figures as “other” rather than black or white were preponderantly African-American. “We know that many African Americans, for a variety of reasons, have decided they don’t want to indicate race.”
An understanding of that fact would underscore the disproportion between black and white voters in the 9th District, he said. (Those figures show that, of 43,031 early voters in the Democratic primary, 26,798 were black, and 7,395 were white; treating the 8,838 voters in the “other” category as essentially black would, as Herenton said, dramatically alter the ratio.)
Media accounts suggesting that whites and Republicans were voting in unusually high numbers were irrelevant to the 9th District, where the voting pattern was “a totally different story.”
Herenton further pointed out that in 2007, he garnered his lowest number of votes as a mayoral candidate, some 65,000 votes. That compared to 55,000, the highest number of votes given Cohen in his congressional primary with Nikki Tinker in 2008.
In a question-and-answer session with reporters, Herenton acknowledged that his own projection of at least a 3-to-1 victory over Cohen did not derive from a professional pollster’s conclusions. “I don’t believe in pollsters. I’m my own best pollster,” he said.
He boasted his own skills at “disaggregating” data and his familiarity with statistics — though he conceded he’d made a ‘B’ in his statistics course at the doctoral level.
He said he was “the same candidate, whether as mayor or as congressman” that 9th District voters had always trusted, though he also conceded, “Not everyone is in love with me.”
video of Herenton's presentation:
Comments (6)
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OK, so now we know what Herenton's theory is. Does that mean we're supposed to accept it simply because he tells us to? I hope someone with some serious punditry (or polling) cred will analyze these numbers and tell us whether they support his conclusion, and why or why not? Shouldn't Yacoubian, Bakke or Ethridge weigh in on this since it's their numbers that are being challenged?
So far, Zack McMillin, at the CA, has taken a crack at doing that, http://memphisnewsblog.com/2010/08/rough-e…, but what does he know? Besides, he hasn't exactly been "fair and even-handed" with Herenton for years, has he?
Remember, right before the '06 elections Karl Rove attempted to debunk what all the polls were showing was going to be a sweeping Democratic victory (which it ended up being) by saying to an interviewer who confronted him with the poll results: "you're entitled to your math...I'm entitled to THE math," much the way Herenton is now. Is it safe to assume WW is using the same math as Rove did?
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For Herenton, this election is all about himself. Now he's _the_ expert pollster -- for himself. Congressman Steve Cohen doesn't pretend to be what he is not; that's why he trusts the true experts like Bakke and Yacoubian. When the press write unfavorably about him, Steve does not irrationally accuse all the 'printed media' of vendettas against him. Steve's tireless effort to responsibly -- and intelligently -- represent all the people of District 9 impact voters. Steve's wisdom and experience, personal integrity and stability, are what we need for District 9.
Herenton has illustrated throughout the entire campaign process that he has an outlandishly vague understanding of how the American democracy works. His assertions that African Americans are not properly represented in the 9th District are ...ridiculous at best; Cohen won over 75% of the votes in a district that is 65% 'minority'.
NOW Herenton has shown us that he doesn't understand statistics either. It's easy to produce skewed results when you conduct your own poll.
I pray there's no tampering with The Flyer's Best of Memphis results !! If there is, this city will explode.
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