Friday, May 22, 2020

New Model Predicts Virus Surge Pushed to November

Posted By on Fri, May 22, 2020 at 10:22 AM


The rate of positive coronavirus remained steady in Shelby County from Thursday to Friday. New numbers from the Shelby County Health Department showed 49 new cases of the virus from 1,400 tests given yesterday.

That put the county's positivity rating for Tuesday at around 3.5 percent, up slightly from 2.2 percent on Thursday but still well below average. The county's average positivity rate has slowly notched down to around 7 percent since the virus arrived here in March.

No new deaths were recorded Thursday. So far, 91 have died here from the virus.

Shelby County COVID-19 Joint Task Force information obtained by the Memphis Flyer Friday morning said the county's infection rate is 1 percent. This means one person with the virus is expected to infect only one other person. This number has fallen over the many weeks, showing that the spread of the virus is slowing here.  

Task Force data said a new predictive model shows a surge of COVID-19 patients going to the hospital is now expected between November 15th and November 30th. the model said the surge here could have between 450 to 600 patients seeking hospital care at once.

National and state models have predicted the surge would occur in early May or later this summer. If the new projections are correct, it's proof that Shelby Countians have "flattened the curve," pushing the surge into the future.
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